Windows 10 End-of-Life, Not AI PCs, Driving 2025 Laptop Market Growth

Global Laptop Market Set for Growth in 2025

The global laptop market is poised for significant growth in 2025, with projections indicating a 4.9% increase to 183 million units shipped. This surge, however, is not primarily driven by the much-hyped AI PCs, but rather by the impending end-of-life for Windows 10 and commercial upgrade cycles, according to new research from TrendForce 1

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Windows 10 End-of-Life: A Major Catalyst

The approaching end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 in October 2025 is emerging as a key motivator for new laptop purchases. Windows 10 still accounts for a staggering 61% of all installs, nearly double that of Windows 11 at 36% 1

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. Many older systems lack the hardware requirements for Windows 11, such as TPM 2.0, forcing users to replace otherwise functional devices 2

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AI PCs: Limited Impact Despite Hype

Despite the industry buzz surrounding AI-integrated laptops, their impact on the overall market remains limited. These devices currently carry a 10-15% premium over their non-AI counterparts and offer little in terms of perceivable upgrades, given their infancy 1

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. During the third quarter of 2024, AI PCs accounted for only one in five new shipments, with Windows Copilot+ PCs making up 53% of those 1

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Market Dynamics and Challenges

The laptop market has faced challenges in 2024, with high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties tempering consumer demand. However, the forecast for 2025 is more optimistic, with expectations of reduced political uncertainty following the US presidential election and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts stimulating cash flow 3

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Consumer vs. Commercial Market Trends

While the consumer notebook market is expected to see a modest 3% growth in 2025, the commercial sector is anticipated to drive significant demand. Businesses that have been holding off on upgrades are likely to take action, particularly in light of the Windows 10 end-of-service deadline 3

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Future of AI PCs

As AI PCs evolve and the technology matures, their appeal might grow, especially if more software becomes optimized for NPUs and prices decrease. However, for now, the AI push remains a secondary factor compared to the more immediate requirement to transition to Windows 11 2

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Global Production and Political Uncertainties

The laptop market still faces potential challenges, particularly regarding global production. With about 89% of global laptop production centered in East Asia, potential policy changes, such as new tariffs under a possible Trump administration, could impact market growth forecasts 3

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