AI Experts and Public Diverge on Job Market Impact: Cashiers, Journalists, and Factory Workers Most at Risk

AI Experts More Optimistic About Job Market Impact

A recent Pew Research Center report has unveiled a significant disparity between AI experts and the general public regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market. The study, which surveyed over 1,000 AI experts and more than 5,400 U.S. adults, found that experts are considerably more positive about AI's effects on jobs and the economy 1

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Diverging Perspectives on AI's Impact

While 56% of AI experts believe that AI will have a positive impact on the U.S. in the next 20 years, only 17% of the general public shares this optimism 1

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. This stark contrast extends to views on job market effects:

• 73% of experts predict AI will positively impact jobs, compared to just 23% of U.S. adults 4

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• 64% of the public believes AI will lead to fewer jobs overall, while only 39% of experts agree 4

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• 51% of Americans express concern about increased AI usage, up from 40% in previous years 2

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Jobs at Highest Risk

Despite the overall optimism among experts, both groups identified several professions at high risk of AI-driven job losses in the next two decades:

1. Cashiers (73% agreement from both groups)
2. Journalists (around 60% agreement)
3. Factory workers (67% public, 60% experts)
4. Software engineers (nearly 50% agreement) 1

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White-Collar Jobs Under Threat

Molly Kinder, a Brookings Institution fellow, emphasizes that generative AI is likely to impact white-collar jobs more significantly than previous waves of automation 2

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. Research suggests that office and administrative support, legal, sales, computers and math, and business and financial sectors are most exposed to AI disruption 2

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Truck Driving: A Point of Disagreement

Interestingly, there's a significant discrepancy regarding the future of truck driving jobs. While 62% of AI experts believe AI will lead to fewer truck driving jobs, only 33% of the public shares this view 1

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Slower Adoption and Ongoing Anxiety

Despite rapid advancements in AI capabilities, adoption has been slower than anticipated, particularly in regulated fields like medicine and law 2

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. However, public anxiety about AI's impact on jobs continues to rise, with 51% of people now expressing concern, up from around 40% in previous years 2

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Expert Insights on AI's Future Impact

Mark Muro, a Brookings fellow, suggests that while certain jobs may be exposed to AI, it's unclear whether the technology will aid workers or replace them 2

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. Eric So, an MIT professor, emphasizes the profound societal changes that AI may bring, particularly with the rise of agentic AI 2

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As AI continues to evolve, experts stress the importance of adaptability and engagement with these technologies. While concerns about job displacement are valid, there will always be roles for humans, even if the nature of those roles is yet to be fully understood 2

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