Apollo Study: AI Investments Show Zero Financial Payoff for Most Companies Outside Tech Giants

AI Investments Fail to Deliver Returns for Most Companies

Despite massive AI investments and widespread hype, artificial intelligence has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside the technology sector, according to a recent analysis by Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok1

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. The investment firm's research focuses on what Slok calls the S&P 493—the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven tech giants: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla2

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Revenue Per Worker Remains Stagnant Outside Tech

Apollo's analysis reveals a stark divide in AI's economic impact. While the Magnificent Seven tech giants saw revenue per worker surge from an average of $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000 this year, the S&P 493 companies have remained flat at around $550,000 since 20192

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. Profit margins tell a similar story, with tech firms experiencing soaring margins since the third quarter of 2023 while other sectors show no meaningful improvement2

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. This disparity raises critical questions about whether AI can truly function as a growth driver for mainstream businesses or will remain confined to computational tasks within tech companies.

Corporate America Shifts AI Spending Strategy

Mainstream corporate America has begun pulling back, now viewing AI spending as a cost center that weighs on margins rather than a source of growth2

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. Slok notes that established firms are unwilling to pay for the latest models, with token spending increasingly seen as an unnecessary expense2

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. The shift comes as investors scrutinize AI-related expenditures during earnings season. Meta's recent announcement of even more aggressive capital expenditures sent its shares down after reporting $34.9 billion in spending during the third quarter and negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion3

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Intelligence Versus Judgment in Business

Slok argues that turning increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and profit margins may prove harder than anticipated1

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. "AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment," he wrote1

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. The technology struggles with human judgment, business culture, accountability, ethical trade-offs, fairness, and trust—all factors that shape reputational risk and drive revenue growth1

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. These limitations suggest AI's role may remain supplementary rather than transformative for most organizations.

AI Adoption Patterns Show Cautious Approach

Despite limited financial returns, AI adoption has accelerated. PYMNTS Intelligence research shows that by 2026, 89% of executives were using AI agent adoption in at least one part of their business, up from just 7% in 20253

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. However, implementation remains conservative: 78% allow agents to read company systems but not act on them, while another 18% require human approval for tasks. Only 2% permit agents to run routine work independently3

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. This cautious deployment may explain why productivity growth remains elusive across most sectors.

Future Outlook Depends on Broader Economic Impact

The research challenges predictions of an "age of abundance" where AI enables reduced working hours and increased leisure time2

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. Slok emphasizes that as long as agentic AI and token spending remain confined to a small part of the economy, the macroeconomic effects of AI will be very limited2

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. "The AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Magnificent Seven, and so far there is no evidence that revenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector," Slok concluded2

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. Companies and investors should watch whether non-tech firms can develop use cases that translate AI capabilities into measurable business outcomes over the coming quarters.