Global Smartphone Market Rebounds, But AI-Driven 'Supercycle' Fails to Materialize
5 Sources
[1]
Turns out, the AI upgrade 'supercycle' isn't happening with iPhone or Android - 9to5Mac
AI was supposed to lead to a supercycle of smartphone growth, not just among iPhone users but also Android. But it turns out, that's simply not a thing yet -- at least based on global 2024 smartphone trends. Sales are trending up, but not at all for the reasons you might expect. This week the IDC
[2]
Apple is nowhere to be found in this year's smartphone sales rebound, researchers say
Although global smartphone sales are set to grow to 1.24 billion units this year, Apple's (AAPL+0.91%) performance has barely improved, according to a new study. Apple and its rivals are expected to ship 6.2% more phones in 2024, according to market intelligence firm IDC. But Apple's iPhone sales
[3]
Apple fails to ride global 2024 smartphone boom with Apple Intelligence
Despite the launch of Apple Intelligence, Apple has not seen the same growth in the recovering smartphone market as other players -- but that's expected to change in 2025. Throughout 2024, reports of smartphone shipments worldwide have tended to say that iPhone sales are down because of increased
[4]
Apple Faces Modest Growth As IDC Forecasts Smartphone Market Rebound - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Global smartphone shipments will likely rise by 6.2% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 1.24 billion units, per International Data Corporation research. The growth comes after two consecutive years of declines, driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades. However, IDC expects a deceleration to low
[5]
Apple Loses to Android as Smartphone Market Recovers | PYMNTS.com
New research shows the smartphone market recovering in 2024 following two years of sharp declines. However, Apple's iPhone played just a small part in that recovery compared to rival Android phones, data released Tuesday (Nov. 26) by IDC shows. Global smartphone shipments for the year are
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The global smartphone market shows signs of recovery in 2024, with a 6.2% growth in shipments. However, the anticipated AI-driven 'supercycle' has not yet materialized, with growth primarily driven by low-end Android devices in emerging markets.
Global Smartphone Market Rebounds in 2024
The global smartphone market is showing signs of recovery in 2024, with shipments expected to grow by 6.2% year-over-year, reaching 1.24 billion units
1
. This growth comes after two consecutive years of decline, primarily driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades2
.Android Dominates Growth, Apple Lags Behind
The recovery is largely attributed to the rapid growth of Android devices, particularly in emerging markets. Android smartphones are forecasted to grow 7.6% year-over-year in 2024, with significant gains in regions such as Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan and China), Latin America, and Africa
3
. In contrast, Apple's iOS devices are projected to see modest growth of just 0.4% due to challenges in major markets like China, the U.S., and Europe4
.AI-Driven 'Supercycle' Yet to Materialize
Despite the hype surrounding generative AI (GenAI) in smartphones, its impact on demand and early upgrades has been minimal so far. Nabila Popal, IDC's senior research director, notes that while GenAI is poised to revolutionize user experiences in the coming years, greater consumer awareness and compelling features are required to create the anticipated "super cycle" of upgrades
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.Low-End Devices Drive Growth
Contrary to expectations, the market rebound is not driven by high-end AI-enabled devices or foldables. Instead, the growth is primarily fueled by low-end Android devices catering to emerging markets
1
. This trend highlights the importance of affordability and market penetration in driving overall smartphone sales.Future Outlook
IDC predicts that GenAI-enabled devices will account for 70% of the smartphone market by 2028, driven by price reductions and widespread adoption
4
. However, the market is expected to see a deceleration to low single-digit growth from 2025 onward, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% from 2023 to 20284
.Related Stories
Apple's Strategy and Challenges
Apple is adopting a new strategy for software updates, opting for staggered feature rollouts rather than bundling them into a single annual iOS release
4
. The company is also working on integrating its in-house large language models (LLMs) for a more conversational Siri assistant, although delays have been reported4
.Market Dynamics and Future Trends
The expanding used smartphone market, increasing penetration, and lengthening refresh cycles are expected to contribute to slower growth after 2024
4
. However, the potential for AI-driven innovations and the ongoing competition between iOS and Android platforms suggest that the smartphone market will continue to evolve, with a focus on AI integration and user experience enhancements in the coming years.References
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