Tesla's Robotaxi Ambitions Face Skepticism Amid Divergent Analyst Forecasts

Tesla Shorts, Gordon Johnson, And James Chanos Express Skepticism On Robotaxi Potential Amid Usage Data Debate: The 'Promise' Worth Much More Than Reality - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Inc.'s TSLA robotaxi ambitions face fresh skepticism from prominent market critics, with new data from New York City's ride-sharing market fueling debate about the technology's revenue potential. What Happened: GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson argued on social media platform X that Tesla shorts would benefit from robotaxi approval, stating the "promise is worth much, much more than the reality." His comments came alongside data shared by veteran short-seller James Chanos, President and Managing Partner, Chanos and Company showing New York City's daily ride-sharing usage averages 768,000 trips, or roughly three rides per capita monthly. The skepticism contrasts sharply with bullish forecasts from leading Tesla analysts. Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives, who maintains a Street-high price target of $515, values Tesla's autonomous business at $1 trillion and projects robotaxis could capture 20% of ride-shares by 2030. Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, takes a more measured stance with a $380 target. Black recently questioned Tesla owners' willingness to add their vehicles to a robotaxi fleet, despite potential earnings of $40,000 annually per vehicle based on his calculations of 25 daily trips at $1 per mile. See Also: Apple's Near Term Success Will Be Driven By Strong Holiday Season, iPhone 16, Says Dan Ives -- Analyst Sees Stock Hitting $300, Cupertino Hitting $4 Trillion Marketcap Why It Matters: Uber Technologies CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has also expressed doubts about Tesla's robotaxi strategy, citing challenges in fleet management and customer service that differ significantly from vehicle manufacturing. Tesla reportedly plans to launch its ride-hail service in Texas and California in 2025, pending regulatory approval. The company is in early talks with Austin authorities for autonomous vehicle testing. The electric vehicle maker's stock has gained 71% year-to-date, with Morgan Stanley naming it their top pick for 2025. According to Benzinga Pro, Tesla currently has a consensus price target of $280.41 from 33 analysts, with recent ratings from Baird, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs averaging $446.67. Read Next: Microsoft Invested Nearly $14 Billion In OpenAI But Now Its Reducing Its Dependence On The ChatGPT-Parent: Report Image Via Shutterstock Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. TSLATesla Inc$433.202.88%Overview Rating:Good62.5%Technicals Analysis1000100Financials Analysis400100WatchlistOverviewMarket News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

TSLA Stock Valuation Duel: Dan Ives Bets Big On Robotaxis While Gary Black Plays It Safe - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Leading Tesla Inc. TSLA analysts Dan Ives and Gary Black revealed stark differences in their valuation approaches during a recent "Brighter with Herbert" show appearance, even as both remain bullish on the electric vehicle maker's prospects. What Happened: Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, maintains the Street's highest price target of $515 with a bull case of $650, citing potential revenues from autonomous robotaxis and the company's Optimus robot project. He projects Tesla's earnings at $15 per share by 2030. "The Tesla story changes because everything we looked at with robotaxi gets accelerated," Ives said, estimating autonomous vehicles could capture 20% of ride-shares by decade's end. He values Tesla's autonomous business alone at $1 trillion. In contrast, Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, takes a more conservative approach with a $380 target, well above the Street average of $275. Black forecasts $17 earnings per share by 2030 but excludes robotaxi and Optimus revenue from his calculations. "Even if I assume Tesla took 25% of ride-sharing market share, that only adds about a dollar per share in earnings," Black explained, noting his use of higher risk adjustments in Tesla's valuation given its volatility. See Also: Palantir And Anduril Reportedly Lead Consortium, Partner With SpaceX And OpenAI To Compete Against Traditional Defense Contractors In $850 Billion US Military Market Why It Matters: The valuation debate comes as Tesla's stock has surged nearly 71% year-to-date, recently crossing the symbolic $420 level that CEO Elon Musk referenced in his controversial 2018 "funding secured" tweet. Morgan Stanley has named Tesla its top stock pick for 2025, citing the company's advances in autonomy and robotics. Both analysts expressed optimism about Tesla's planned entry into the compact car segment, with Black suggesting a $25,000-$30,000 hatchback could expand Tesla's market reach similar to how the Model Y boosted its presence in the crossover segment. Tesla has a consensus target of $280.41 from 33 analysts, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The high is $515, and the low is $24.86. Recent ratings from Baird, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs give an average target of $446.67, implying a 3.05% upside. Year-to-date, the Tesla stock has gained 69.50%. Read Next: Trump's Call To Reclaim Panama Canal Sparks Backlash: 'Every Square Meter Belongs To Panama,' Says President Mulino Image Via Shutterstock Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs