ASML raises sales forecast for second time as AI chip demand pushes production limits

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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ASML, the world's leading maker of chip manufacturing equipment, raised its annual sales outlook to €43-45bn as surging AI chip demand drives orders for its advanced EUV lithography machines. The Dutch company now plans to boost production capacity by 30% next year and is already close to fully booked through 2027, cementing its position as Europe's most valuable company.

ASML Raises Sales Forecast Twice in One Year

ASML, the Netherlands-based leader in chip manufacturing equipment, raised its annual sales outlook for the second time in 2026, now projecting total net sales between €43bn and €45bn

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. This marks a significant jump from analysts' forecasts of €39.6bn and surpasses the company's previous guidance of €36-40bn

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. The raised sales forecast reflects continuous AI chip demand that has pushed the semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker's order book beyond current production limits. ASML reported 21 per cent year-on-year growth in sales to €9.3bn in the second quarter, with net income of €2.9bn beating analyst forecasts of €2.6bn

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. The company also guided to a gross margin between 54% and 56%, up from its previous estimate of 51-53%

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Source: Analytics Insight

Source: Analytics Insight

Production Capacity Expansion to Meet AI Boom

Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet announced plans to increase production capacity of the company's most advanced EUV lithography machines by 30 per cent next year, with a similar increase being considered for 2028

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. The company is already "close to [receiving] all the EUV orders we need for 2027," Fouquet added, highlighting the intense AI-driven demand from chipmakers racing to expand their production capacity. ASML shipped 86 lithography systems in the second quarter, up from 67 in the first quarter

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. The company is working to reduce assembly time for each machine from about 22 weeks toward 15 or 16 weeks to meet customer needs

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. Revenue from customers making memory chips is now projected to increase by 75 per cent this year, reflecting the extraordinary growth in the semiconductor industry

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Strategic Position in Advanced Chip Manufacturing

ASML's role at the center of the global chipmaking demand has made it Europe's biggest winner from the AI boom and turned it into the region's most valuable company, with a market value exceeding €600bn ($700bn)

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. The company holds a monopoly position as the only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most advanced chips used in AI applications. Intel recently became the first to deploy ASML's latest High NA EUV machines in production—a key milestone for a product that sells for as much as $400mn

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. TSMC, one of ASML's largest customers and the manufacturer of Nvidia's chips, reported a 36 per cent rise in quarterly sales and a 68% jump in June sales, driven by strong demand for AI accelerators

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Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

China Challenges and Export Controls

Despite robust performance, ASML faces headwinds from tightening export controls on its advanced chip equipment. China is forecast to account for up to 20% of ASML's sales this year through legal purchases of less-advanced DUV tools, down sharply from around half two years ago

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. A proposed U.S. law could require U.S. allies to align with export controls to curb China's ability to make advanced chips, with ASML specifically named in the legislation

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. The company has denied selling its most advanced EUV tools to China, though the regulatory environment continues to present uncertainty for future sales.

Path to Trillion-Dollar Valuation

Investors and analysts are increasingly discussing whether ASML could become Europe's first trillion-dollar company, requiring the addition of roughly $300bn in market value—a gain of about 40% on a stock that has already climbed approximately 60% this year

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. Barclays, Susquehanna and Bernstein have all nudged price targets toward $2,600 a share following the results

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. Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero suggested that ASML's 2030 sales target of at least €44bn now looks overly conservative, forecasting €60bn in 2030 sales instead

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. However, some analysts caution that the valuation looks stretched, with the stock trading at 49 times estimated 2027 earnings

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. The broader concern centers on cyclicality, as lithography systems orders track capital spending of a handful of chipmakers and the hyperscalers funding them, and that spending has turned down before

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