IBM beats revenue estimates but AI concerns send shares tumbling 6% in extended trading

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IBM reported first-quarter revenue of $15.92 billion, beating analyst estimates, but shares dropped over 6% as investor concerns about AI disruption to its software business intensified. The company's software unit grew 11%, while its infrastructure segment jumped 15%, driven by mainframe adoption. Despite the beat, questions linger about whether AI tools from competitors like Anthropic could threaten IBM's core business.

IBM Posts Revenue Beat Amid Growing AI Disruption Fears

IBM reported first-quarter revenue of $15.92 billion, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $15.62 billion, yet shares tumbled more than 6% in extended trading as investor concerns about AI disruption overshadowed the positive results

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. The company's total revenue increased 9% year-over-year, representing a slowdown from the 12.2% revenue growth recorded in the previous quarter

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. IBM software sales reached $7.05 billion, up 11% from the prior year, matching expectations but failing to ease fears that AI tools could replace many of the company's current offerings

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Source: ET

Source: ET

Hybrid Cloud Growth and Enterprise Demand Drive Results

The software segment, anchored by IBM's high-margin hybrid cloud unit Red Hat and its suite of AI tools under the Watsonx brand, grew 11.3% in the first quarter

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. Enterprise demand for generative AI and hybrid cloud continues to surge as businesses automate workflows and manage large amounts of data across their own data centers and public clouds

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. CFO James Kavanaugh told investors that the company expects 2 percentage points of growth for its software unit tied to generative AI work this year, noting that AI-related work increases demand for IBM's infrastructure software, which enables clients to work with leading AI models

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Mainframe Adoption Remains Bright Spot Despite COBOL Modernization Concerns

IBM's infrastructure business, which includes mainframe computers, generated sales that rose 15% to $3.33 billion, outperforming quarterly estimates and serving as a bright spot for over a year

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. Mainframe adoption has been driven by the continued rollout of the latest generation z17 systems, which process millions of daily transactions for major banks, airlines, and retailers

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. However, investor concerns intensified after Anthropic unveiled its Claude Code tool in February, claiming it could help modernize COBOL, a dated programming language widely used on IBM mainframes

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. That announcement triggered IBM's steepest selloff in decades, and the stock has slipped 15% this year

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Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

IBM AI Strategy Counters Competitive Threats

Analysts have pushed back on fears that AI will erode IBM's business, pointing to the company's deep customer ties and broader AI offerings, including Watson Code Assistant, a COBOL modernization tool for the mainframe

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. James Kavanaugh emphasized that clients using Watson Code Assistant are experiencing faster growth in mainframe consumption, stating that "Gen AI in modernization of mainframe is actually an accelerator and accretive to the mainframe portfolio overall"

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. IBM has refashioned itself into a high-growth software company through major acquisitions of Red Hat, HashiCorp, and Confluent, though this new focus has made it a target for investor concerns about AI replacing current software products

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Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Wall Street Questions Customer Purchasing Behavior

Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, noted that investors were looking for better results from the software unit and suggested that Wall Street is likely to ask whether customers are delaying purchases with IBM while they test out tools from AI firms

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. IBM's consulting unit revenue increased 4% to $5.27 billion, marking the highest growth rate for the struggling business since 2023

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. The company maintained its earlier forecast for revenue to grow more than 5% this year when adjusting for currency fluctuations

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. Adjusted profit came in at $1.91 per share, beating estimates of $1.81 per share

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. CFRA analyst Brooks Idlet commented that "the stakes around these results were higher than normal given the software/services selling pressure the market has seen this year amid AI competition fears, and we do not think Q1's results validated those fears"

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