SpaceX Stock Rallies as AI Compute Leasing Emerges as Dominant Revenue Driver Worth $54 Billion

SpaceX Stock Draws Bullish Analyst Ratings on AI Compute Growth

SpaceX stock has captured Wall Street's attention as multiple analysts issue buy ratings, pointing to the company's rapidly expanding AI compute leasing business as a transformative revenue stream1

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. TD Cowen initiated coverage with a buy rating and $200 price target, implying 37% upside from the $145.47 closing price1

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. Morgan Stanley took an even more aggressive stance, maintaining an Overweight rating with a $300 price target that suggests roughly 90% upside potential3

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. SPCX shares surged 5.8% to reach $156.62 following a record-setting operational day and the formal start of Google's $920-million-per-month AI compute contract entering full-rate billing4

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. The stock has been volatile since its June IPO at $135 per share, rallying as high as $225.64 before pulling back, though it remains approximately 8% above its offering price2

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Terrestrial AI Compute Leasing Projected to Dominate Revenue Mix

Analyst John Blackledge from TD Cowen expects SpaceX's terrestrial AI compute leasing to become the company's fastest-growing revenue stream and comprise the majority of overall SPCX revenue by 1Q271

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. The AI infrastructure business addresses a critical supply-demand imbalance in the artificial intelligence sector, with SpaceX currently serving four customers leasing or beginning to lease AI compute capacity in 2026, including Anthropic and Alphabet1

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. Blackledge estimates SpaceX will generate AI compute leasing revenue of approximately $8.1 billion in 4Q26, exiting December 2026 with a $41 billion annual recurring revenue run rate1

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. Needham confirmed that announced AI compute deals are projected to lead to a combined annualized revenue run rate of approximately $54 billion, supporting management's target of $100 billion in total company annual recurring revenue by the end of 20265

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. This represents dramatic growth from the company's current revenue of $23 billion over the last twelve months5

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Major AI Contracts with Google and Anthropic Drive Revenue Projections

Google's AI compute contract with SpaceX entered its full-rate billing phase in October, commanding $920 million per month after a reduced-rate ramp through September4

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. Combined with Anthropic's $1.25-billion-per-month deal for exclusive access to the Colossus 1 data center, SpaceX's AI segment now commands roughly $26 billion in annualized contracted revenue from two of the world's best-funded AI companies4

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. These neocloud contracts are reportedly coming in between $30 and $50 per watt, significantly higher than the consensus estimates built around $17.60 per watt across 4.1 gigawatts of capacity3

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. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas calculated that every additional $10 per watt could add more than $40 billion in revenue above baseline projections3

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. SpaceX's gigawatt capacity is forecast to grow from 2.1 gigawatts in 2026 to 6 gigawatts by the end of 2027, nearly tripling its terrestrial AI compute infrastructure1

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Valuation Analysis Shows Growth-Adjusted Discount Despite Premium Multiple

SpaceX stock trades at approximately 30 times estimated 2028 earnings before interest and taxes, nearly double the multiple of other mega-cap AI companies that trade at roughly 16 times 2028 estimated EV-to-EBIT3

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. However, Morgan Stanley's Jonas argues the valuation looks different when adjusted for growth rates. On a growth-adjusted basis, SpaceX trades at roughly 0.3 times its 2028 multiple, compared with a median of about 0.5 times for the mega-cap AI peer group3

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. Even at Morgan Stanley's $300 price target, the stock would sit at around 0.6 times that growth-adjusted measure, roughly in line with Amazon and below both Alphabet and Meta3

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. At $159 per share, Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX's space launch and Starlink connectivity businesses account for around $127 of that price, leaving roughly $32 per share attributed to AI, which works out to about three times estimated 2028 enterprise value to sales for a neocloud business3

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. Jonas describes the valuation challenge as an "and" problem rather than an "or" problem, noting that SpaceX operates as a launch company and satellite connectivity provider and mobile communications player and AI infrastructure business simultaneously3

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Starship Progress and Space Operations Provide Additional Upside

Starship Flight 14 successfully reached orbit on September 28, deploying 26 of its first operational Starlink V3 satellites and completing a controlled splashdown in the Pacific Ocean5

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. The company executed three separate rocket missions within a single 13-hour period, including the Crew-13 crewed mission for NASA, the Transporter-18 rideshare carrying 130 payloads including Google's Project Suncatcher AI satellite prototype, and the classified NROL-97 Falcon Heavy mission for the National Reconnaissance Office4

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. Analysts view Starship reusability as critical to the economics of SpaceX's space business. Morgan Stanley gave Flight 14 a B+ grade and suggested a successful Starship catch could be the biggest positive catalyst for the stock since its IPO3

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. TD Cowen's Blackledge noted that Starship opens opportunities for more complex government missions including lunar missions and Mars exploration, predicting Launch and Development revenue should exceed Launch Services revenue around Q1 20301

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. The Pentagon has also tapped Elon Musk to co-lead its Project Meridian future warfare review, underscoring SpaceX's deepening ties to U.S. defense, with the company already holding approximately $8 billion in active defense contracts4

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Wall Street Consensus Leans Bullish with Execution Risk Acknowledged

Most analysts covering SPCX maintain bullish ratings, with 31 of 40 analysts rating it a buy or strong buy according to LSEG data, and an average price target implying 57% upside1

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. Benzinga data shows 26 of 32 analysts rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus average price target of $226 implying about 54% upside2

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. Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating with a $250 price target, while Needham reiterated a Buy rating and $250 price target following discussions with SpaceX's investor relations team4

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. However, analysts acknowledge execution risk remains significant. SpaceX must build massive infrastructure, secure sufficient power capacity, and convert demand into profitable contracts at scale3

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. Needham adjusted its AI revenue estimates in the second half of 2026 and calendar year 2027 to reflect a more gradual ramp of compute deal contribution, accounting for the possible lumpy nature of renewals5

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. Investors should watch for third-quarter earnings expected in late October, Starship Flight 15 anticipated in late October or early November, new Grok model releases, additional neocloud agreements, and continued progress on Starship reusability as potential catalysts that could shift sentiment on the stock3

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