SpaceX Gets Buy Ratings as AI Compute Leasing Becomes Its Fastest-Growing Revenue Stream

TD Cowen Initiates Coverage With $200 Price Target

TD Cowen initiated coverage of SpaceX with a buy rating and a $200 price target, implying 37% upside from the Monday close of $145.471

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. Analyst John Blackledge expects SpaceX's terrestrial AI compute leasing to become the company's fastest-growing revenue stream and majority of overall revenue by first quarter 20271

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. The company went public in June 2026 at $135 per share in the largest IPO in history, rallied to $225.64, then pulled back significantly2

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AI Compute Capacity Expansion Drives Growth Projections

Blackledge forecasts SpaceX's gigawatt capacity will nearly triple from 2.1 gigawatts in 2026 to 6 gigawatts by the end of 20271

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. The biggest near-term driver of SpaceX revenue is leasing terrestrial AI compute capacity to frontier labs and other companies given the current AI supply and demand imbalance2

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. SpaceX currently has four customers leasing or starting to lease AI compute capacity in 2026, including Anthropic and Alphabet1

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. TD Cowen estimates SpaceX will generate AI compute leasing revenue of approximately $8.1 billion in fourth quarter 2026, exiting December 2026 with a $41 billion annual recurring revenue1

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Major AI Compute Deals With Google and Anthropic

October marks the first month in which Google's $920-million-per-month AI compute contract enters its full-rate billing phase, following a reduced-rate ramp through September3

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. Combined with Anthropic's $1.25-billion-per-month deal for exclusive access to the Colossus 1 data center, SpaceX's AI segment now commands roughly $26 billion in annualized contracted revenue from two of the world's best-funded AI companies3

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. Needham reiterated a buy rating and $250 price target following discussions with SpaceX's investor relations team regarding AI compute contracts4

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AI Compute Deals Expected to Generate $54 Billion Annualized Revenue

The majority of AI compute deals are expected to ramp in the fourth quarter of 2026, with one beginning in December4

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. These deals are projected to lead to a combined annualized revenue run rate of approximately $54 billion for only the announced AI compute deals4

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. This supports management's commentary for targeting total company annual recurring revenue of approximately $100 billion by the end of 20264

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. Needham adjusted its AI revenue estimates in the second half of 2026 and calendar year 2027 to reflect a more gradual ramp of compute deal contribution4

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Stock Surges on Launch Success and Defense Contracts

SpaceX stock surged 5.8% to reach $156.62, propelled by an extraordinary 13-hour launch tripleheader that concluded overnight3

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. The company executed three separate rocket missions including the Crew-13 crewed mission for NASA, the Transporter-18 rideshare carrying 130 payloads including Google's Project Suncatcher AI satellite prototype, and the classified NROL-97 Falcon Heavy mission for the National Reconnaissance Office3

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. A report highlighted that the Pentagon has tapped Elon Musk to co-lead its Project Meridian future warfare review, underscoring SpaceX's deepening ties to U.S. defense with the company already holding approximately $8 billion in active defense contracts3

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Starship Opens New Revenue Opportunities

Starship opens up the opportunity for more complex government missions including lunar missions and Mars exploration, and thus Launch and Development revenue should exceed Launch Services revenue around first quarter 20301

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. Starship Flight 14 successfully made it to orbit on September 28 and released 26 of its first operational Starlink V3 satellites4

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. Most analysts covering SpaceX stock are bullish, with 31 of 40 rating it a buy or strong buy according to LSEG data1

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. The average price target implies upside of 57%1

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. Benzinga data shows 26 of 32 analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, with an average price target of $226 implying about 54% upside2

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