TSMC revenue growth beats estimates as AI demand survives Middle East war disruption

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 35% quarterly revenue increase to $35.6 billion, signaling that global AI chip demand remained robust during the first weeks of Middle East conflict. The chipmaker for Nvidia and Apple is expected to post its fourth straight quarter of record profit with a 50% surge in net income, driven by insatiable demand for 3-nanometre technology and advanced packaging.

TSMC Posts Strong Revenue Growth Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 35% increase in quarterly revenue, reaching NT$1.13 trillion ($35.6 billion) for the three months through March, beating analyst estimates of NT$1.12 trillion

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. March sales alone surged 45%, suggesting that strong global demand for AI remained intact despite escalating conflict in the Middle East

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. The world's largest manufacturer of advanced AI chips serves as the primary chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc., positioning it at the center of the global push to build AI infrastructure.

Source: Analytics Insight

Source: Analytics Insight

Analysts expect TSMC to report a net profit of T$542.6 billion ($17.1 billion) for the quarter, marking its fourth straight quarter of record profit with a 50% surge in net income

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. Any profit result above T$505.7 billion would represent the company's highest-ever quarterly net income and its ninth consecutive quarter of profit growth

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. Asia's most valuable company now boasts a market capitalization of around $1.6 trillion, nearly double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics

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Insatiable AI Demand Drives Advanced Technology Adoption

Demand for TSMC's 3-nanometre technology to produce AI chips and its advanced packaging technology continues to outstrip the firm's current production capacity

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. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Charles Shum calculates that gross margin can reach a record high of at least 65%, driven by sustained strong demand for 3- and 5-nanometer nodes used in AI accelerators and networking-chip production

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. The favorable appreciation of the US dollar against the New Taiwan Dollar provides a further tailwind to margins.

Source: BNN

Source: BNN

Arthur Lai, head of technology research for Asia at Macquarie Capital, expects higher quarter-on-quarter revenue growth guidance for the second quarter of 2026, driven by sustained AI momentum and advanced-node leadership

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. TSMC's Taipei-listed shares have gained 28% so far this year, outperforming both its major customers and the broader market's 22% rise

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Supply Chain Disruptions Pose Limited Threat

The war in the Middle East threatens to disrupt the supply of production materials for semiconductors such as helium and neon, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions

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. However, TSMC appears well-positioned to weather geopolitical events. Galen Zeng, senior research manager at IDC, noted that "TSMC's diversified sourcing and safety stock should be sufficient to manage short-term disruptions"

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One area of focus will be whether TSMC maintains or raises its 2026 capital spending plans, as this will reflect management's confidence in long-term AI demand

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. The company is currently investing $165 billion to build chip factories in Arizona and has revised its plans in Japan to manufacture 3-nanometre chips there instead of focusing on more mature nodes

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AI Server Partners Show Sustained Momentum

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., also known as Foxconn, reported a 29.7% rise in quarterly sales to NT$2.13 trillion ($66.5 billion), with March sales climbing 45.57% year-over-year to a record NT$803.7 billion

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. The growth was driven by the company's cloud and networking segment, fueled by strong demand for AI servers used in data centers

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Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Steven Tseng and Rebecca Wang note that Hon Hai's deep vertical integration and global presence offer an edge amid increasing server complexity and demand for localized production, with further upside possible from a surge in ASIC-based server projects

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. The company has established itself as a key AI hardware player by assembling servers that house Nvidia accelerators, benefiting from the roughly $650 billion that Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., and Microsoft Corp. are earmarking for AI spending this year

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Investor Skepticism Persists Despite Strong Results

TSMC and AI customers such as Nvidia face increasing investor skepticism about whether they can maintain current growth rates

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. After explosive sales turned Nvidia into the world's most valuable company and TSMC the most valuable company in Asia, investors are seeking assurances that booming AI spending can be sustained. Shares of Nvidia are down 1.4% this year even after the global AI chip leader delivered an outlook that beat estimates, on top of a 73% jump in quarterly revenue

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Chairman Young Liu of Hon Hai warned about uncertainty around the business environment stemming from the Middle East crisis, noting that "it remains necessary to monitor the impact of the volatile global political and economic situation"

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. The earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT will provide critical insights into whether sustained, multiyear AI chip demand and strength in leading-edge nodes supports raising TSMC's long-term gross-margin target above 58%

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