SanDisk secures $93.9 billion in AI storage deals as data center demand surges

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SanDisk reported record quarterly revenue of $8.97 billion driven by AI infrastructure demand but shares fell 5-8% as guidance disappointed investors expecting stronger growth. The company unveiled 10 long-term purchase agreements worth $93.9 billion backed by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees, targeting 80% adjusted gross margins by 2030.

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SanDisk Posts Record Revenue but Stock Falls on Cautious Guidance

SanDisk delivered record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $8.97 billion and adjusted earnings of $39.25 per share, surpassing Wall Street expectations as AI-driven demand for data storage solutions powered growth

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. Despite beating estimates, shares fell 5-8% in after-hours trading after the company projected current-quarter revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion and adjusted earnings of $44 to $46 per share

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. While the outlook exceeded consensus estimates of $10.47 billion, it failed to meet elevated investor expectations following the stock's 470% rally this year

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AI Infrastructure Fuels Data Center Revenue Surge

The company's data center revenue more than doubled from the third quarter to $2.98 billion, reflecting accelerating AI-driven demand for data center storage

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. Rising demand for high-capacity storage used in AI infrastructure, combined with stronger NAND memory pricing and tight industry supply discipline, lifted profitability across enterprise solid-state drives and flash memory chips

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. CEO David Goeckeler emphasized that generative AI's rapid growth continues boosting demand as data centers require more storage and computing capacity

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Long-Term Purchase Agreements Transform Business Model

SanDisk has fundamentally shifted its sales strategy toward long-term purchase agreements rather than quarterly contracts, signing 10 agreements with eight customers worth at least $93.9 billion

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. These New Business Model agreements feature a median duration of four years and include committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees of $16.5 billion, and structured pricing mechanisms

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. These contracts will account for roughly 50% of production in fiscal 2027 and two-thirds in fiscal 2028, providing unprecedented visibility for a NAND memory market historically defined by extreme volatility

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. "That's light years ahead of where we were just three quarters ago," Goeckeler told Reuters

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Investor Day Unveils Aggressive 2030 Financial Targets

At its 2026 Investor Day in New York, SanDisk presented a financial roadmap targeting mid-to-high-teens annual revenue growth from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030

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. The company expects adjusted gross margins near 80% and adjusted operating margins near 75%, with operating expenses representing roughly 5% of revenue

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. CFO Luis Visoso announced plans to generate adjusted free cash flow margins of approximately 50% after taxes, capital expenditures and working capital requirements, with intentions to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders once the business is fully funded

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. The board approved an additional $14 billion share repurchase program, bringing total remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion

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AI Inference Drives Massive Storage Expansion Forecast

SanDisk projects the market for flash memory inside data centers will reach 1.2 zettabytes by 2030, driven primarily by AI inference workloads

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. AI inference, the stage where trained models answer questions rather than learn, produces massive volumes of intermediate data requiring fast, cost-effective storage solutions. SanDisk and manufacturing partner Kioxia unveiled ninth-generation flash memory running at 4.8 gigabits per second, representing a 33% speed gain over previous generations

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. The company introduced a two-dimensional scaling strategy built around CMOS directly Bonded to Array technology and is advancing High Bandwidth Flash technology as a potential solution for AI inference workloads

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Hyperscale Customers Make Binding Financial Commitments

BNP Paribas analysts highlighted that hyperscale customers are putting capital behind demand forecasts rather than simply reserving future supply, with $16.5 billion in financial guarantees backing SanDisk's contracts

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. In a note titled "A Glass Half Full," BNP estimated these agreements are expected to generate approximately 80% margins at floor pricing, offering downside protection even if market conditions weaken

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. The firm maintained a Neutral rating but lowered its price target to $1,400 from $1,900, citing peer multiple compression, softening consumer demand, increasing competition in China, and concerns that gross margins may be nearing a peak

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. Despite near-term headwinds, analysts suggest investors may underappreciate how quickly AI customers are shifting from forecasting storage demand to financially committing to it, fundamentally transforming SanDisk from a cyclical memory maker into a more predictable AI storage infrastructure provider

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