AI sell-off intensifies as investors dump chip stocks amid bubble fears and circular financing concerns

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Global stock markets tumbled as investors ditch chip stocks, with South Korea's Kospi halted after plunging 8%. SK Hynix shares have fallen 45% from June highs, while Samsung dropped over 10%. The AI sell-off reflects mounting investor concerns about circular financing and the sustainability of Big Tech's massive AI infrastructure spending.

Investors Ditch Chip Stocks as AI Sell-Off Deepens

Global stock markets experienced severe turbulence as an AI sell-off accelerated, with investors dumping AI-related chipmakers amid mounting fears of AI bubble conditions. South Korea's Kospi plunged 8% on Tuesday morning, triggering a temporary trading halt—the eighth circuit breaker activation this year

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. After the 20-minute pause, the index continued its descent, ultimately trading around 10% lower

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. The tech-heavy Kospi has now fallen approximately 25% over the past month and is down by a third from its June peak, though it remains 46% higher year-to-date

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Source: BBC

Source: BBC

The sell-off was led by South Korea's semiconductor giants. SK Hynix shares shed as much as 10%, while Samsung Electronics fell more than 9%—significant given these two companies account for about 40% of the South Korean stock market

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. SK Hynix has been particularly hard hit, with Seoul-listed shares now down approximately 45% since hitting a record high above Won3mn ($2,041) in June, wiping about $570bn off its market value

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. The company's American depositary receipts closed more than 7% lower at $143 on Monday—$6 below their offer price when trading began on July 9

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Market Volatility Spreads Across Asian Markets

Japan's stock markets also suffered steep declines as chip stocks plummeted. The Nikkei 225 dropped more than 4% on Tuesday, with memory chip company Kioxia plunging as much as 18%

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. Kioxia, taken private in 2018 by a Bain Capital-led consortium that included SK Hynix, has plunged 50% in the past month after briefly becoming Japan's biggest company by market value

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. Other semiconductor-related stocks including Lasertec, Disco, Tokyo Electron and Renesas were also sharply down

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. The Nikkei 225 is now down almost 15% since hitting a high of more than 72,000 points in June

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Traders in Tokyo expressed shock at the velocity of the decline. "I can't remember seeing anything this bad or violent," said one senior equities trader, blaming rising interest rates for triggering an unwinding of momentum and retail-driven positions

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Circular Financing and Nvidia Concerns Rattle Markets

Investor concerns intensified following reports that Nvidia is in discussions with OpenAI about providing approximately $250bn for a massive datacentre expansion project in Ohio

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. Skeptics label this arrangement as circular financing, where a supplier invests money in its customers, artificially inflating demand

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. The news knocked Nvidia shares down 5% on Monday, causing the chip giant to lose its position as the world's most valuable listed company to Apple

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. More concerning for investors, the cost of insuring Nvidia's debt against default using credit default swaps spiked

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted: "The market reaction to the Nvidia news was swift. Nvidia fell 5% and closed the session below the $200-per-share mark. More importantly, Nvidia's five-year CDS spiked, suggesting that it may not yet be the right time to buy the dip"

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. Prices for credit default swaps tied to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia have risen to record highs in recent days

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Sustainability of AI Spending Under Scrutiny

The sell-off reflects growing investor doubts about the sustainability of AI spending and the durability of Big Tech's massive investments in AI infrastructure. As governments and companies spend hundreds of billions of dollars on developing AI capabilities, analysts question whether the technology can become profitable enough to recoup such huge investments

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. Although SK Hynix is expected to report second-quarter operating profit of about Won64tn on Wednesday—up sevenfold from a year earlier, with revenue more than tripling to roughly $57bn

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—investors fear that soaring memory chips prices could eventually curb demand as customers seek cheaper alternatives

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Source: ET

Source: ET

Oversupply Fears and Chinese Competition

Oversupply fears have also weighed on sentiment after South Korea's leading chipmakers unveiled aggressive expansion plans. SK Hynix and Samsung plan to build two new chip plants apiece in South Korea as part of a combined Won800tn ($530bn) investment to double their production capacity for DRAM chips over five years

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. US rival Micron Technology has raised planned domestic investment to $250bn through 2035

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Analysts also attributed the sell-off to competition from cheaper Chinese companies, after a report that China has begun mass production of homegrown deep ultraviolet chip-making tools

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. On Monday, Chinese memory chip maker CXMT surged 466% when it floated on the Shanghai stock exchange, underlining China's drive to create its own AI supply chain

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. Jing Jie Yu, an equity analyst at Morningstar, said: "We believe the market was likely spooked by the progress of China's chip-making equipment capabilities, and was worried that this progress would threaten the competitive position of global chip making and chip equipment leaders," adding that the sell-off was "largely a kneejerk reaction and overdone"

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Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

Analysts See Buying Opportunity Despite Market Jitters

Despite the market volatility, some analysts remain positive on the industry's near-term outlook. Chan H Lee, managing partner at Petra Capital Management, stated: "SK Hynix's stock has gone up too much, too fast this year, so this kind of correction is inevitable. But we are likely to see a rebound soon as deleveraging is almost done and global funds will flow in again once they think the correction is complete"

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Some analysts argue the recent sell-off has made SK Hynix shares increasingly attractive, trading at just 4.4 times forward earnings, below Micron's 6.2 times

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. Shawn Oh of NH Investment & Securities said the recent pullback has made SK Hynix a "compelling buy," citing attractive valuations and ongoing deleveraging among Korean retail investors

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. KB Securities analyst Kim Dong-won expects sales to Big Tech companies and datacentre expansion operators to account for 70% of the company's revenue, up from 30% in 2017

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