SK Hynix warns memory shortage could persist until 2030 as AI demand strains wafer supply

SK Hynix Projects Extended Memory Shortage Through 2030

The global memory shortage appears far from over. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won delivered a sobering forecast at Nvidia's GTC Conference in San Jose, California, warning that the chip wafer shortage could persist until 2030—significantly longer than the two-year timeline analysts previously anticipated 1

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. The major DRAM supplier expects the industry to face at least four to five more years of constrained supply, with wafers—the foundational base that chips are built on—remaining in critically short supply.

Artificial Intelligence Drives Unprecedented Demand for HBM

The root cause of this extended memory shortage lies in the explosive growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure. As companies race to build next-generation AI data centers, they're deploying GPUs packed with massive amounts of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). "AI actually wants to have a lot of HBM, and once you make the HBM...we have to use a lot of wafers," Chey Tae-won explained 2

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. SK Hynix, which ranks No.1 in the HBM market with a 57% share and holds a 32% share of the global DRAM market as the second-largest player according to Counterpoint, finds itself at the center of this supply crunch 2

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. The surging demand for HBM continues to outpace the industry's ability to expand wafer production capacity.

Industry Faces More Than 20% Wafer Shortage

Chey's assessment paints a challenging picture for semiconductor manufacturing. "The current shortage could continue until 2030, so we expect more than a 20% shortage of the wafers," he stated 2

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. Building new fabs and expanding wafer production capacity requires substantial time and resources. When asked about expanding chip manufacturing capacity in the United States, where many of SK Hynix's customers are based, Chey noted that establishing overseas plants requires adequate power, water, construction conditions, and engineering talent—resources that cannot be mobilized quickly 2

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. The company is currently focusing production efforts in Korea.

Efforts to Stabilize DRAM Chip Prices Amid Soaring Costs

The prolonged shortage has already triggered significant price increases and product delays across the consumer electronics industry. SK Hynix is developing a strategy to stabilize DRAM chip prices, which have ensnared consumer DDR5 and DDR4 RAM 1

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. "I cannot just announce right here, but I guess that our CEO is going to announce a new plan for how to stabilise the price of the DRAM," Chey said 2

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. The situation has already caused price hikes and delayed new products, including Valve's Steam Machine and reportedly new Nvidia graphics cards 1

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Impact on Consumer Electronics and Market Outlook

Research firms predict both the smartphone and PC industry will experience around a 10% decrease in shipments during 2026 due to rising component costs sapping demand and production 1

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. This represents a significant challenge for the consumer electronics industry as manufacturers grapple with constrained supply and elevated DRAM prices. Meanwhile, SK Hynix is reviewing a potential U.S. ADR listing to broaden its global investor base and increase exposure to American and international investors 2

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. The company also faces challenges from Middle East tensions, which have created difficulties due to higher energy prices, pushing the group to seek alternative energy sources 2

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. Shares of SK Hynix traded up 2.7% to 3.5% following the announcements 2

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