US Ban on Chinese AI Hardware Could Disrupt Data Centers and Raise Costs for Amazon, Microsoft

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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The Trump administration is drafting a ban on Chinese data center components, targeting optical transceivers that power AI infrastructure. Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink shares plunged 8-16% as the Federal Communications Commission moves to block imports over national security concerns, threatening to disrupt AI supply chains and increase costs for major hyperscalers.

US Ban Targets Critical Chinese AI Hardware Components

The Trump administration is drafting a ban on Chinese data center components through the Federal Communications Commission, specifically targeting optical transceivers that enable high-speed data transfer within AI infrastructure

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. The FCC is working to bar imports of new Chinese optical transceivers, which allow data to travel over fiber-optic cables at the speed of light within data centers

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. Officials hope to publish the measure this year, when it would take effect

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. The move aims to prevent Chinese firms from stealing data, installing malware, or disrupting service at US data centers that house the chips to train and run AI models

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Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

Chinese AI Hardware Stocks Plunge on Ban Fears

Shares in Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink, two of China's biggest winners from the global AI boom, sank sharply following the Reuters report

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. The mainland Chinese shares of Innolight and Eoptolink dropped by 8.6% and 6.9% respectively

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. Zhongji Innolight fell as much as 16% intraday according to some reports, while the CSI 300 telecommunication services index tumbled 6% in early trading

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. Since the start of 2023, Innolight and Eoptolink shares have soared by some 4,500%, catapulting them into the ranks of China's most valuable companies

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. Net profit at Innolight rose to Rmb10.8bn ($1.6bn) last year from Rmb2.2bn in 2023, while Eoptolink profits climbed from Rmb688mn to Rmb9.5bn over the same period

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Export Dependency Creates Vulnerability for Chinese Firms

Both Chinese companies make most of their money overseas, creating significant exposure to the US ban. More than 90% of Innolight's Rmb38.2bn ($5.6bn) in revenue came from outside China last year, with the figure for Eoptolink standing at 96%

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. Zhongji Innolight generated 62% of its revenue from the US in the first quarter, roughly 12bn yuan

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. Earnings growth has been strong due to significant demand from US groups such as Amazon and Alphabet that buy their optical transceivers and other equipment needed for data centers that power AI services

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. Innolight has a leading 27% share of the global data center transceiver market, according to Counterpoint Research

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Source: Japan Times

Source: Japan Times

US Hyperscalers Face Higher Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions

Research firm Counterpoint published a note warning that the ban would damage the companies it is meant to protect

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. Hyperscalers such as Amazon and Microsoft would face higher costs if Chinese optics suppliers were cut off, analyst Neil Shah wrote

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. Their expensive AI accelerators would also run at lower utilization

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. Chinese companies hold nearly two-thirds of global optical transceiver supply, with seven of the top ten positions in optical modules worldwide

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. Innolight and Eoptolink together account for more than 60% of the global market in 800G optical modules and above, the modules AI clusters actually buy

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. A US ban could raise costs for American cloud firms such as Amazon Web Services, as it may force them to transition to other producers such as US-based Coherent and Lumentum, which stand to benefit from the measure but lack the scale to replace Chinese vendors

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National Security Concerns Drive FCC Action

China hawks in the administration are keen to avoid another situation like Huawei, where telecom equipment made by the heavily sanctioned Chinese firm was so deeply embedded in US infrastructure that efforts to remove it were slow, expensive, and incomplete

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. The FCC has imposed similar curbs on Chinese drones, routers, robots, and inverters

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. In line with those restrictions, the agency would ban all imports of new transceiver models and then exempt many non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions

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. The FCC could still modify or shelve the restriction, sources stressed

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Beijing Responds with Countermeasures

China's Ministry of Commerce announced a set of countermeasures on Wednesday

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. Exports of drones, their key components, and related technologies to the US now face case-by-case scrutiny, effective immediately

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. The ministry added six US entities to a countermeasures list and barred a firm called Compliance Testing LLC from doing business in China, specifically for working with the FCC

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. The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing urges the United States to stop smearing Chinese companies and threatening them with sanctions, adding that China will take all necessary measures in response to any action that causes material harm to its interests

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Source: The Next Web

Source: The Next Web

US-China Technology Decoupling Accelerates

Kenny Ng, a strategist at Everbright Securities International, said the latest salvo from Washington will add to Beijing's resolve to support its local industrial innovation push

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. Continuous and targeted US restrictions on AI computing power and underlying data center hardware will further compel China to accelerate the push for self-reliance and autonomy in key technologies

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. Such disruptions would drive up costs for downstream application enterprises, thereby impacting the development pace of the AI industry

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. The two sides are now trading restrictions in a familiar rhythm, and a technology supply chain that took decades to knit together is being unpicked category by category

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. Watch for potential retaliatory measures from Beijing targeting rare-earth minerals, which Western manufacturers cannot easily source elsewhere, and whether US allies follow Washington's lead in imposing similar restrictions on Chinese AI infrastructure components.

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