AI Set to Revolutionize Global Trade, WTO Report Predicts 40% Growth by 2040

AI's Transformative Impact on Global Trade

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its World Trade Report for 2025, highlighting the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in reshaping global trade dynamics. The report projects a significant boost to the value of trade in goods and services, estimating an increase of nearly 40% by 2040 1

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Source: BNN

Projected Growth and Economic Impact

According to the WTO's simulations, global trade is expected to rise by 34-37% under various scenarios by 2040. This substantial increase is attributed to lower trade costs and enhanced productivity driven by AI technologies. Alongside trade growth, the report forecasts a 12-13% increase in global GDP 2

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Source: MediaNama

Sector-Specific Growth and AI Applications

The largest growth is projected in the trade of digitally deliverable services, including AI services, with an estimated increase of 42%. This sector's high growth reflects reduced operational trade costs, strong projected growth of AI services, and above-average productivity growth in more tradable sectors 4

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AI's Role in Trade Efficiency

AI tools are already enhancing trade efficiency across various domains:

Source: France 24

1. Supply Chain Management: Improving visibility and automating customs clearance 5

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2. Language Barriers: AI-driven translation technologies making communication faster and more cost-effective 1

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3. Market Intelligence: Strengthening market insights and helping firms navigate complex regulations 5

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Potential Challenges and Economic Divides

While the overall outlook is positive, the WTO report cautions about potential challenges:

1. Digital Divide: Without targeted investment and inclusive policies, AI could deepen existing economic divides 1

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2. Income Disparities: In a scenario where lower-income economies fail to bridge the digital divide, they would see only an 8% gain in incomes by 2040, compared to a 14% gain in higher-income economies 2

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3. Trade Restrictions: Nearly 500 restrictions on AI-related goods trade were in place last year, mostly by higher- and medium-income economies 2

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Policy Recommendations

To ensure the benefits of AI are shared widely, the WTO emphasizes the need for:

1. Predictable trade supported by WTO rules
2. Lower tariffs on raw materials essential for AI technologies, including semiconductors
3. Targeted investment and inclusive policies to bridge the digital divide 1

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As AI continues to reshape the future of the global economy and international trade, the WTO report underscores the importance of balanced policies to harness its potential while addressing potential inequalities.