AI-Related Goods Drive Unexpected Surge in Global Trade, WTO Reports

AI Boom Fuels Unexpected Trade Growth

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported a surprising surge in global trade, largely driven by artificial intelligence (AI) related goods. In its October 2025 update of the "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics," WTO economists revealed that AI-related products accounted for nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year 1

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The trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, rose by an impressive 20% year-on-year in value terms 1

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. This growth spanned the entire digital value chain, from raw materials to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications.

Revised Forecasts and Economic Indicators

In light of these developments, the WTO has significantly revised its trade growth forecasts. The organization now expects world merchandise trade volume to grow by 2.4% in 2025, up from the 0.9% projected in August 2

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. However, the outlook for 2026 remains cautious, with growth expected to slow to 0.5% 1

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The volume of world merchandise trade grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while the value increased by 6% in current US dollar terms 1

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. This growth was supported by various factors, including frontloading of imports in North America and favorable macroeconomic conditions such as disinflation and supportive fiscal policies.

Regional Trade Dynamics and South-South Growth

The WTO report highlighted significant regional variations in trade performance. Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export volume growth in 2025, while Europe is likely to see slower growth. North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) face declining exports 1

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A notable trend is the robust growth in South-South trade, which increased by 8% year-on-year in value terms during the first half of 2025, outpacing the overall world trade growth of 6% 2

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. South-South trade excluding China grew even faster, at around 9%.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite the positive trends, the WTO warns of potential challenges ahead. The implementation of new tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty are expected to impact trade growth negatively in late 2025 and into 2026 1

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WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the importance of the rules-based multilateral trading system in maintaining trade resilience. She called for nations to "reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere" 1

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As the global economy navigates these complex trade dynamics, the sustained growth in AI-related goods and services could provide a medium-term boost to global trade, potentially offsetting some of the anticipated slowdowns in other sectors.