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New Fed task force members share Chairman Kevin Warsh's embrace of AI
Warsh has been personal friends with Andreessen for decades. Warsh also ran venture-capital investments for investor Stanley Druckenmiller after a stint at the Fed that ended in 2011. That expanded his Silicon Valley network -- and his wealth. Andreessen made a fortune creating some of the internet's earliest web browsers and is now one of AI's most vocal evangelists. "We've turned sand into thought," Andreessen told podcaster Joe Rogan in May, referencing the silicon that is the physical basis for AI chips. Jones, the economist, shares much of Andreessen's West Coast optimism. Jones recently went on leave from Stanford University to join the Anthropic Institute, part of leading AI firm Anthropic. Jones's academic work recently has focused on the effects of AI on economic growth, making him an important voice in Warsh's efforts to bring the Fed around to his point of view. Jones noted in a recent paper that U.S. growth per capita has consistently averaged 2% over much of U.S. history. "Nevertheless, if AI eventually automates away nearly all the weak links in the economy, economic growth could accelerate significantly, with rates potentially exceeding 5 percent per year," he wrote. The paper analyzes what Jones identifies as weak links -- aspects of the economy that will be difficult to automate -- and considers lower potential growth rates as well. But Jones writes bluntly that AI "will likely be the most transformative technology of the modern era." Sharma, who in February became CEO of Microsoft's Xbox gaming business, has made strong statements in support of AI. But as the leader of an operating business, she made the rare decision not to prioritize AI. Even as Microsoft incorporates AI into all aspects of its products, Sharma opted not to put it front and center on Xbox, she said in a recent Bloomberg interview. "Our console players aren't excited about that experience," Sharma said. But that doesn't make her a skeptic. "Now, do I believe in AI? Absolutely," she said. The three task force members didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. The Fed declined to comment. Where Warsh may encounter skeptics is on the Federal Open Market Committee, which has the power to set interest rates. FOMC members discussed at its June meeting the question of whether AI can raise productivity, minutes from the discussion released this week show. Some FOMC participants bought into the idea that productivity would speed up, the minutes said. And yet they weren't fully sold. "These participants remarked, however, that considerable uncertainty remained regarding both the timing and magnitude of potential productivity gains, which were expected to lag the ongoing boost of AI adoption on demand." Meanwhile, U.S. tech firms' headlong embrace of AI is starting to heat the economy. New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday said he was concerned about price increases in electricity and semiconductors from the AI boom. Prices have risen like a "hockey stick," with some components doubling and tripling, Williams said. AI is a "demand shock," he said, adding that it is unclear if supply will grow alongside it, which would be necessary to keep inflation down. The Fed meets again at the end of July, when it is expected to hold interest rates steady. The task forces are expected to finish their work by the end of the year.
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Fed's Williams says AI is now his main inflation concern | Fortune
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that among the drivers of inflation in the US, he's most focused on demand driven by artificial intelligence. And if that demand persists, it could force the central bank to raise interest rates. "If this creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think that's the kind of situation where you don't look through this," Williams said Thursday during an event organized by the New York Fed. If inflation ends up being more persistent and meaningfully higher than his baseline forecast, he said, "then monetary policy would need to respond to that." "On the other hand, if it isn't and things play out in a more benign way, I do think monetary policy is, and continues to be, well positioned," he said. As he monitors inflation, Williams said if the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying price pressures -- the so-called core version of the personal expenditures price index -- comes in at a monthly pace of 0.2% over the second half of 2026, that would suggest inflation is on track to return to the Fed's 2% annualized target. "A rate of core PCE of two-tenths a month in the second half of this year, that would be consistent with my view of a disinflationary process that's continuing," Williams said. "If it's higher than that, that would be a sign of inflation a bit more persistent." The Fed has kept its benchmark rate steady this year, but support for rate hikes is growing among officials. Nine policymakers penciled in at least one quarter-point hike in 2026 in their latest set of economic projections submitted at their June gathering. At the same meeting, a few participants saw a case for raising interest rates, according to minutes released Wednesday. The minutes revealed that policymakers had discussed how they would want to respond to various scenarios for future inflation. Williams said the exercise, and the details provided by the minutes, captured a "collective reaction function," referring to the framework through which the central bank thinks about the economy and how to respond to certain conditions. "It shows the richness of these scenarios," he said. Chairman Kevin Warsh has touted the need for a new approach at the Fed, announcing task forces to review the central bank's communications, balance sheet and inflation models as well as to study key issues such as productivity and data sources. The task forces would have around six months to deliver a set of suggested changes, the new chairman said. The New York Fed chief, who is also vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, said the task forces were a "unique and timely" opportunity to think about key areas for the central bank. "It's a pretty aggressive timeline of trying to get those reports back to us," Williams added.
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Federal Reserve Taps A16z Co-Founder for Monetary Policy Task Force
The Fed named a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen to co-lead an AI productivity and jobs task force under Chair Kevin Warsh's policy review. The US Federal Reserve named Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) co-founder Marc Andreessen to help lead a task force studying how artificial intelligence and other new technologies could affect productivity and jobs. Andreessen will serve on the Fed's Productivity and Jobs task force alongside Charles I. Jones, a Stanford University economics professor currently on leave at Anthropic, and Asha Sharma, Microsoft's executive vice president and Xbox CEO. The new task force will assess how general-purpose technologies such as AI will affect employment and productivity to better inform the central bank's policymaking, the Fed said in a Thursday press release. The group is one of five task forces launched under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, each responsible for examining important areas of monetary policy conduct. The other task forces will focus on the Fed's policy communication, balance sheet policy, data quality and inflation frameworks. Andreessen co-founded Andreessen Horowitz, which has become one of Silicon Valley's most influential venture capital firms and a major backer of crypto and AI startups. Andreessen and Warsh's ties date back to the early 1990s at Stanford University. During a 2025 interview with CNBC, Warsh said that both Andreessen and Palantir's Peter Thiel "have been friends from my days in college." Andreessen publicly supported Warsh's appointment as Fed chairman. "I've known Kevin for 30 years; he combines great insight in economics and finance with keen understanding of technology and business," he wrote in a Jan. 30 X post following US President Donald Trump's nomination. Source: Marc Andreessen Warsh launches Fed task forces Warsh revealed the leadership-driven overhaul and the creation of the five new task forces during a press conference on June 17. "These subjects are timely, consequential, and, in my view, worthy of a fresh look," said Warsh during the press conference, adding that each of these will be independently led by "some of the very best minds -- both inside and outside the economics profession." Warsh also said that the central bank will strive to publish policy statements and guidance in shorter, clearer language. FOMC divided over AI's economic impact The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is sharply divided over the economic impact of AI and whether it is an inflationary or disinflationary technology. Some view AI as a long-term disinflationary productivity booster, while others argue that the current spending on AI infrastructure is actively increasing inflation. During a May 27 speech, Governor Lisa Cook said that she expects AI to further "boost productivity growth, contributing to my expectation that GDP will grow robustly," but added that it presents the risk of "higher inflation." In former Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements from March 2026, he said that data center spending is "putting pressure on all kinds of goods and services" and is "probably pushing inflation up at the margin."
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Fed Blames AI Demand Boom for Rising US Inflation
Ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure "would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity," Federal Reserve policymakers said. Federal Reserve officials were split last month on whether to increase interest rates or keep them steady, with many seeing accelerating demand for artificial intelligence as a driver of inflation, according to meeting minutes released on Wednesday. The minutes covered the first monetary policy meeting under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Many Federal Open Market Committee members said that "ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity," according to the minutes. AI-related inflationary pressure, colloquially known as "chipflation," stems from the rising cost of semiconductors used by data centers. This surge in demand, along with data center competition for energy, has pushed up consumer prices for a wide range of electronic goods, devices and power, and may continue as AI demand increases. Higher inflation is generally bad news for risk assets such as crypto, as it results in lower liquidity and spending power and higher interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and cash investments more attractive. Inflation will remain elevated in the near term Participants anticipated that inflation would "remain elevated in the near term" but may decline as the Middle East conflict eases. However, they judged that the "risks to the inflation outlook were still tilted to the upside." AI growth remained a strong theme, both boosting economic growth and contributing to inflation at the same time. "Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity that exceeded that of potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures." The Fed's "dot plot" signals hikes, not cuts, with nine of 18 voting members projecting at least one rate hike before the end of 2026 and six expecting two 25-basis-point increases. The central bank's PCE inflation projection for year-end also jumped from 2.7% to 3.6%. A hawkish dot plot signals that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer this year. Source: Federal Reserve The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, while CME futures markets currently show a 70% probability that they will remain unchanged at the next meeting on July 29. AI infra buildout driving higher inflation Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the Fed's recent meeting highlights how the massive AI infrastructure buildout is "driving higher inflation through surging demand for semiconductors, energy and data centers, even as it promises future productivity gains." "While this short-term pressure complicates monetary policy, it also underscores the need for innovative solutions in decentralized technologies to optimize resource allocation and ease bottlenecks in the digital economy," he said. Analysts said this week that crypto markets could benefit from any Fed intervention to backstop the booming US equity market in a downturn.
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US Fed appoints Marc Andreessen to co-lead productivity, jobs task force to assess economic impact of new technologies
The US Federal Reserve has formed five task forces to modernize its monetary policy framework. Marc Andreessen will co-lead a task force examining technology's economic impact. These groups will provide independent recommendations to the Federal Open Market Committee. Prominent global economists and policymakers are participating in these important panels. New Delhi: The US Federal Reserve has appointed Marc Andreessen, cofounder and general partner at Andreessen Horowitz to co-lead one of the five task forces that will review and modernise the central bank's monetary policymaking framework, as per a statement by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the leadership and objectives of the task forces, which will examine key areas of monetary policy and provide independent recommendations to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh seeks to strengthen the Fed's approach amid a rapidly changing economic landscape. Also read: US Justice Department hindering probe of former Epstein ranch, New Mexico says "The Federal Reserve's commitment to price stability and maximum employment is unwavering. As is our resolve to pursue our mandate with rigor," said Chairman Kevin Warsh, as per the release. The five task forces will be co-led by external advisers--accomplished economists, business leaders, and former central bank practitioners. "Supported by Federal Reserve staff, they will operate independently, with a mandate to follow the evidence, provide candid feedback, and produce rigorous findings for the Federal Open Market Committee," it said. As per the release, Andreessen will serve on the Productivity and Jobs task force alongside Stanford University economist Charles I. Jones and Microsoft Executive Vice President and XBOX CEO Asha Sharma. The group will assess the economic impact of emerging general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence, to help inform the Fed's policy decisions. Besides Productivity and Jobs, the Federal Reserve has constituted task forces on communications, balance sheet policy, data, and inflation frameworks. Also read: Trump fires three Election Assistance Commission members ahead of midterms Additionally, the panels bring together prominent global policymakers and economists, including former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, Nobel laureate Thomas Sargent, Harvard professor Raj Chetty, and former Central Bank of Brazil President Arminio Fraga. "The U.S. economy has changed significantly over the last generation, and never more so than right now. Each task force will carefully consider whether policymakers' means and methods, analytical tools and policy approaches can be improved upon. I am honored that the best minds from a range of disciplines have agreed to work with us to sharpen our performance as an institution. The goal is straightforward: to ensure the Fed is best positioned to achieve our objectives in this consequential time," said Warsh.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Bets on AI, Taps Marc Andreessen and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma to Help 'Inform' Future F
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has assembled a high-profile group of AI advocates to help evaluate how artificial intelligence could reshape the U.S. economy and influence future monetary policy. Fed's New AI Task Force To Assess AI's Economic Impact The Federal Reserve on Thursday unveiled five external task forces, including one focused on evaluating the economic effects of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. According to the Fed, the AI task force will "assess the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence, to inform the Federal Reserve's policy judgments." Kevin Warsh Sees AI As A Productivity Engine Warsh has repeatedly argued that AI could allow the U.S. economy to grow faster without triggering inflation, according to CNBC. Earlier this year, he suggested advances in AI could eventually support lower interest rates, while in June he described AI adoption as "perhaps as important a change in the economy and business and households that we've had in my adult lifetime." However, not everyone at the Fed shares that optimism. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting showed policymakers acknowledged AI's potential to boost productivity but said there remains "considerable uncertainty" over both the timing and scale of those gains. The tech industry has seen layoffs accelerate alongside rising investments in AI infrastructure, with more than 81,000 jobs cut during the first quarter of 2026. Just earlier this month, Microsoft unveiled plans to cut 4,800 jobs, including approximately 3,200 roles at Xbox, with 1,600 layoffs taking effect immediately and another 1,600 scheduled over the coming year. Who Is Leading the Fed's New Task Forces The Fed also created four additional task forces. The communications panel will be led by University of Washington professor Peter R. Fisher, former Brazilian central bank chief Arminio Fraga and former Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King. The balance sheet policy group will be headed by Harvard economist Karen Dynan, former Reserve Bank of India Gov. Raghuram Rajan and former Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein. The data task force will be led by Harvard economist Raj Chetty, Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT) CEO Doug McMillon and University of Chicago economist Kevin Murphy. Meanwhile, the inflation frameworks panel will include Harvard economist and former White House adviser Greg Mankiw, Nobel Prize-winning economist Thomas Sargent and former Bank for International Settlements economic adviser William White. Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock.com Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
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AI Making Life More Expensive for You? Federal Reserve Says 'Upward Pressure' Likely to Sustain for Now
The Federal Reserve said that artificial intelligence was a contributing factor to inflation in its June meeting minutes and cited "AI-related price pressures" as a driver of core goods inflation. Fed Points to AI-Related Price Pressures The Fed added that while AI could eventually boost productivity and help ease inflationary pressures, "this effect would likely take time to materialize." "Ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity," the Fed said. Bull Theory Says AI Is Fueling Inflation Market research platform Bull Theory, in a post on X on Wednesday, said the AI boom that has lifted semiconductor stocks 220% this year is also driving up the cost of chips, memory, electricity and data center construction. "AI is contributing to inflation right now," the market researcher said, adding that productivity gains from AI are likely years away, keeping interest rates higher for longer. "Higher rates are the single biggest risk to the AI valuations the market has been pricing in all year," it added. Rate Cuts Could Take Longer to Arrive The Fed's Desk survey showed that interest rates were expected to remain unchanged through early 2027, while market pricing expected one rate hike by mid-2027. Last week, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that surging demand for AI infrastructure could add to inflationary pressures and potentially require higher interest rates if price growth remains elevated. "When I look broadly, particularly around large companies, I'm not seeing a lot of restraint in the economy," she said, adding that hyperscalers "will pay almost any price" for critical data center equipment. Disclaimer: This content was produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Image via Shutterstock/ Andrii Yalanskyi Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
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Warsh recruits all-star team, AI experts to kickstart sweeping Fed reforms
From Walmart to the Nobel Prize, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh went long and deep in his quest to kick off massive reforms of the U.S. central bank's operations -- changes he and others, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have argued are long overdue. Fifteen outside experts including former central bankers, academics, business leaders and even a college pal of Warsh who made it big in tech venture capital are co-leading five Fed task forces. The focus: improvements and upgrades to support the Fed's dual mandate of labor and inflation plus its balance sheet, communications and data with a spotlight on the role of artificial intelligence. "Each task force will carefully consider whether policymakers' means and methods, analytical tools and policy approaches can be improved upon. I am honored that the best minds from a range of disciplines have agreed to work with us to sharpen our performance as an institution,'' Warsh said in a July 9 statement. He announced the formation of the task forces following the July 17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, his first as chairman of the world's largest central bank. He then set about personally recruiting the co-leads, who are not being compensated for their efforts. They will work with Fed staff to deliver recommendations by the end of the year to the FOMC. "The goal is straightforward: to ensure the Fed is best positioned to achieve our objectives in this consequential time,'' Warsh said. Will AI lead the Fed to lower interest rates? Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, made AI a key speaking point of his campaign to take over as chair of the central bank. His arguments have been that use of AI will lead to massive improvements in the productivity of people and businesses that will allow for lower interest rates without higher inflation. "If we do our jobs, we'll be here a year from now and we'll say we've discovered data that helps us make better decisions," Warsh said at a conference I covered on July 1. The Fed's dual mandate from Congress requires maximum employment and stable prices. * Lower interest rates support hiring but can fuel inflation. This risks fueling further inflation, potentially leading to an inflationary spiral. * Higher rates cool prices but can weaken the job market. This increases the cost of borrowing and further stifles economic activity. Aaron Schwartz / Getty Images Fed Communications Task Force Will review how the Fed conveyspolicy deliberations and decisions amid uncertainty. * Peter R. Fisher, professor of practice, Foster School of Business, University of Washington. He is a former Treasury and New York Fed official. * Arminio Fraga, founder and chairman of Gávea Investimentos and former president of the Central Bank of Brazil. * Mervyn King, former governor, Bank of England. King ran the BOE for over a decade and led the U.K. central bank through the 2008-09 financial crisis. Fed Balance Sheet Policy Task Force Will examine the costs, benefits, and institutional implications of the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet. * Karen Dynan, Harvard University economics professor who held top roles at the Treasury Department during the Obama administration. * Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago finance professor. He is a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and is known for his early warnings ahead of the global financial crisis. * Jeremy Stein, Harvard University economics professor and a former Fed governor. Fed Data Task Force Will examine how to improve the quality and timeliness of real economic signals that inform the Fed's policy judgments. * Raj Chetty, Harvard University economics professor and a pioneer in the use of alternate and real-time data to analyze households and neighborhoods economic behavior. * Doug McMillon, former Walmart Inc. president and CEO. * Kevin Murphy, University of Chicago economics professor. Fed Productivity and Jobs Task Force Will assess the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence, to inform the Fed's policy judgments. * Famed tech investor Marc Andreessen, cofounder and general partner at Andreessen Horowitz. Andreessen is an outspoken supporter of the Trump 2.0 administration as well as a close friend of Warsh from their Stanford undergraduate days. * Charles I. Jones, Stanford University economics professor currently on leave from Anthropic, the AI research and product company founded by former OpenAI executives. * Asha Sharma, executive vice president and XBOX CEO at Microsoft Corp. Fed Inflation Frameworks Task Force Will revisit how the Fed understands and responds to the drivers of inflation. * Greg Mankiw, Harvard University economics professor and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration. * William White, senior fellow, C.D. Howe Institute. He is a former economic adviser to the Bank for International Settlements. * Thomas Sargent, New York University economics professor. He shared the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2011 for his work in macroeconomics and government policy. Fed task forces to face multiple challenges RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said the list of global economic and business experts will add experience to the task forces, though he cautioned they will face challenges, too. "It's a very impressive list that's been put forward by Chair Warsh that I'm confident will inform the discussion around the substantive topics," Brusuelas told Bloomberg. "However, the Fed already has an army of Ph.D.s that had investigated these areas, so I'm not exactly convinced that this is going to shed much light into how we understand productivity and AI," Brusuelas said. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published July 10, 2026 at 11:03 AM.
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Kevin Warsh Launches Fed Task Forces to Review AI and Monetary Policy
Warsh said in June that AI may be 'perhaps as important a change in the economy and business and households' as any shift in his adult life. In 2025, he also said AI-led productivity gains could support rate cuts if they prove lasting. The AI panel arrives as Fed officials debate how quickly the technology can raise productivity. Minutes from the June FOMC meeting show that some participants saw room for growth. Yet the same discussion showed caution. Participants said 'considerable uncertainty remained' over the timing and scale of future productivity gains. They also expected those gains to trail the current demand boost tied to AI adoption. New York Fed President John Williams also raised concerns this week. He said AI-linked demand has pushed up prices for electricity and semiconductors. Some components have doubled or tripled, he said, describing the price path as a 'hockey stick.' Williams said AI represents a demand shock. He added that supply must expand fast enough to keep price pressure under control. Without that balance, the Fed may need to treat AI as an inflation issue. Meanwhile, Doug McMillon will help lead the group reviewing the quality and speed of economic data used in Fed decisions. This panel comes as job-market data faces added scrutiny. Revisions to payroll figures and lower survey response rates have raised questions about how real-time data informs policy judgments. The task forces are expected to finish work by the end of 2026, while the Fed's next policy meeting is set for late July.
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The Federal Reserve has appointed Marc Andreessen to co-lead a task force examining AI's economic impact as officials grow increasingly concerned about AI-driven inflation. New York Fed President John Williams now identifies AI demand as his primary inflation concern, with semiconductor prices doubling and tripling. The central bank faces a critical decision on whether to raise interest rates as AI infrastructure spending heats the economy.
The Federal Reserve has named Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, to co-lead a monetary policy task force examining how AI and emerging technologies affect productivity and employment
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. The productivity and jobs task force represents one of five groups launched under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's leadership-driven overhaul of the central bank's monetary policy framework5
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Source: ET
Andreessen will work alongside Charles I. Jones, a Stanford University economist currently on leave at Anthropic, and Asha Sharma, Microsoft's executive vice president and Xbox CEO
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. The three share Warsh's embrace of AI's economic potential, though they bring different perspectives. Jones recently wrote that if AI automates nearly all weak links in the economy, growth rates could potentially exceed 5 percent per year, compared to the historical 2% average1
. Andreessen, who made his fortune creating early web browsers, told podcaster Joe Rogan that "we've turned sand into thought," referencing the silicon basis for AI chips1
.New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that among inflation drivers, he's most focused on demand driven by artificial intelligence
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. Williams described prices rising like a "hockey stick," with some components doubling and tripling, calling AI a "demand shock"1
. The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation has become so significant that Williams warned if this demand creates a sustained impulse relative to supply, "monetary policy would need to respond to that"2
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Source: Fortune
Federal Open Market Committee minutes released this week revealed that many members believe "ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity"
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. This AI-driven inflation, termed "chipflation," stems from rising costs of semiconductors used by data centers, along with competition for energy that has pushed up consumer prices across electronic goods and power4
.The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% this year, but support for rate hikes is growing among officials
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. Nine policymakers penciled in at least one quarter-point hike in 2026 in their latest economic projections, with six expecting two 25-basis-point increases4
. At the June meeting, a few participants saw a case for raising interest rates, according to minutes released Wednesday2
.Williams stated that if the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying price pressures—the core personal expenditures price index—comes in at a monthly pace of 0.2% over the second half of 2026, that would suggest inflation is on track to return to the Fed's 2% annualized target
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. The Fed's PCE inflation projection for year-end jumped from 2.7% to 3.6%4
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Source: Benzinga
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The Federal Open Market Committee remains sharply divided over whether AI is an inflationary or disinflationary technology
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. Some FOMC participants at the June meeting bought into the idea that productivity would speed up from AI adoption, though considerable uncertainty remained regarding both the timing and magnitude of potential productivity gains1
. Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity exceeding potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures4
.The task forces are expected to finish their work by the end of the year, providing independent recommendations to help the Federal Reserve navigate this critical juncture
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. Kevin Warsh emphasized that "the U.S. economy has changed significantly over the last generation, and never more so than right now," stating the goal is to ensure the Fed is best positioned to achieve its objectives in this consequential time5
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