Nvidia loses entire China market as Huawei AI chip sales surge 60% to $12 billion

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reveals the company now holds zero market share in China's AI accelerator market, down from 66% in 2024. Huawei fills the void with its Ascend 950 chips, expecting $12 billion in revenue this year as US export controls drive Chinese tech firms toward domestic alternatives. The shift highlights how regulatory barriers are reshaping the global AI hardware landscape.

Nvidia Market Share in China Collapses to Zero

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang disclosed that the company's market share of AI accelerators in China has plummeted to zero percent, marking a dramatic reversal from its dominant position just two years ago

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. Speaking in an interview with the Special Competitive Studies Project, Huang stated, "In China, we have now dropped to zero," adding that "conceding an entire market the size of China probably does not make a lot of strategic sense"

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. Earlier projections by Bernstein estimated Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market would fall from 66% in 2024 to roughly 8% in coming years, but the decline happened faster than anticipated

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Source: TweakTown

Source: TweakTown

The collapse stems directly from US export controls that restrict Nvidia's ability to supply advanced AI chips to Chinese customers. While Huang confirmed in March that the company received U.S. licenses to sell its H200 chips to China, no shipments have been made due to conflicting regulatory requirements

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. Beijing has instructed Chinese tech companies to limit their use of Nvidia chips to overseas operations and support domestic producers, while U.S. regulators require that all Nvidia chips ordered by Chinese clients only be used in China

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. This regulatory limbo has prevented customs clearance for H200 shipments, creating an opening for domestic alternatives.

Huawei AI Chip Sales Surge as Domestic Alternative Gains Traction

Huawei is positioned to capture the largest share of China's AI chip market this year, with sales jumping by at least 60 percent as Chinese tech firms scramble for domestic AI hardware

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. The Shenzhen-based company expects revenues from AI chips to reach approximately $12 billion in 2026, up from $7.5 billion in 2025, based on orders already received

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. The majority of orders this year are for the Ascend 950PR processor, which entered mass production in March, with an upgraded 950DT version planned for the fourth quarter

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Source: Wccftech

Source: Wccftech

Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips surged following DeepSeek's release of its V4 artificial intelligence model, which runs on the Chinese company's semiconductors

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. Major Chinese tech firms including ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are reaching out to Huawei about new chip orders, according to sources familiar with procurement discussions

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. Companies specializing in cloud computing and GPU rental services are also scrambling to place orders

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Strategic Shift Toward AI Inference and Self-Sufficiency in AI

While Huawei's latest chips still lag Nvidia's most advanced products by at least two generations, the Chinese company has positioned its 950PR processors as the hardware of choice for domestic companies running AI inference—the computation large language models use to generate responses

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. Huawei is betting that inference, which is technically less challenging than model training, will be a bigger future source of demand as AI applications such as agents become more widespread

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. The tech group is also leveraging its networking capability to build powerful computing clusters, offsetting weaker single-chip performance

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DeepSeek's decision to optimize its V4 model specifically for Huawei's chips marks a strategic shift away from American semiconductor dependence and toward China's homegrown AI gear, which is a priority for Beijing as it seeks tech supremacy

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. Jensen Huang warned about the implications: "The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation," noting it could lead to a scenario where "AI models around the world are developed and they run best on non-American hardware"

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Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

US Export Controls May Have Backfired, Says Nvidia CEO

Jensen Huang contends that US export controls may be strategically counterproductive, arguing that "the policy really needs to be dynamic and needs to stay with the times"

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. He warns that conceding a market of this scale accelerates China's push toward self-sufficiency, while continued participation of American companies in that market would help extend the global reach of the American AI technology stack

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Huang emphasizes that even without leading AI GPUs and software stacks developed in America, China remains a formidable competitor when it comes to frontier AI models, citing the country's cheaper energy, incredible talent pool, and extraordinary number of AI researchers

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. He argues that long-term leadership will depend less on restricting global rivals and more on ensuring that the American AI ecosystem dominates globally

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China's AI Chip Market Projected to Hit $67 Billion by 2030

Morgan Stanley forecasts China's AI chip market will reach $67 billion in 2030, with 86 percent expected to be supplied by Chinese players

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. The firm estimates the market to be about $21 billion this year from domestic suppliers

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. China's AI chip sector was previously dominated by Nvidia, which sold $17.1 billion in fiscal year 2025, mostly from H20, a watered-down product tailored for China to meet US export controls

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However, supply constraints persist due to U.S. export restrictions on advanced chipmaking tools that prevent China from acquiring cutting-edge manufacturing equipment

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. Huawei planned to ship around 750,000 units of the 950PR this year, with mass production beginning in April and full-scale shipments starting in the second half of 2026

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. Most of Huawei's AI chips are manufactured by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), China's leading fab, with two additional fabrication plants dedicated to its needs scheduled to launch later this year

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Software Ecosystem Remains Key Battleground

A key challenge for Nvidia's Chinese competitors has been building a software ecosystem to rival the U.S. chipmaker's CUDA, which remains dominant globally

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. Huawei's Cann platform, started a decade after CUDA, has drawn complaints for being difficult to use, which greatly increases clients' operating costs

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. While improvements are being made, its disadvantage compared to Nvidia's CUDA remains significant, developers say

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. This software frontier represents the main area where American AI technology still holds an edge in China that local companies have yet to conquer

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