Intel bets on AI inference to restore CPUs to center of compute as Q1 revenue beats expectations

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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Intel reported Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion, beating Wall Street expectations by over $1 billion as demand for CPUs in AI inference workloads surges. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says the shift from training to inference is changing the CPU-to-GPU ratio, with agentic AI potentially flipping it entirely. The company's share price jumped over 20% in after-hours trading, approaching record highs not seen since the dotcom era.

Intel Reports Strong Q1 Results Driven by AI Infrastructure Boom

Intel delivered a decisive beat in its Q1 2026 earnings, reporting revenue of $13.6 billion—well above Wall Street's $12.4 billion estimate—as AI-driven CPU demand begins reshaping the chipmaker's trajectory

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. The company's share price surged more than 20% in after-hours trading, with some reports indicating shares reached approximately $81, positioning Intel to potentially hit record highs not seen since 2000

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. CEO Lip-Bu Tan told analysts that AI spending is pushing the total addressable chip market toward $1 trillion, and Intel is positioned to capture meaningful share as CPUs reclaim their role in AI infrastructure

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Source: CRN

Source: CRN

The revenue forecast for Q2 proved equally bullish, with Intel projecting $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion compared to analyst estimates of $13 billion . AI-driven business lines accounted for 60% of Q1 revenue, up 40% year-on-year, according to CFO David Zinsner

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. The data center and AI products division generated $5.1 billion in revenue, jumping 22% from a year earlier and far surpassing expectations

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AI Inference Shifts the CPU-to-GPU Equation

The transition from AI training to AI inference workloads is fundamentally altering demand patterns for data center chips. Zinsner explained that training solutions typically run at a ratio of 8 GPUs to 1 CPU, but inference drops that to approximately 3 or 4 to 1

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. As agentic AI workloads and multi-agent systems proliferate, that ratio could flip entirely in favor of CPUs, he noted. Lip-Bu Tan emphasized that inference represents a much bigger market opportunity than training, alongside physical AI applications in agents, robots, and edge devices

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Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

"For the last few years, the story around high-performance computing was almost exclusively about GPU and other accelerators. In recent months, we have seen clear signs that the CPU is reinserting itself as the indispensable foundation of the AI era," Lip-Bu Tan told analysts

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. Bob O'Donnell, president and chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research, said "the growing recognition of the role CPUs are playing in agentic AI workloads is a big factor" in Intel's resurgence

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Xeon Server Processors Win Key Design Slots

Intel's Xeon server processors are securing critical placements in next-generation AI data centres. The company highlighted that Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for Nvidia's DGX Rubin NVL8 systems, demonstrating Intel's ability to win in AI infrastructure buildouts

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. Intel also announced a long-term deal with Google for co-development of infrastructure processing units (IPUs) to offload networking and other tasks, with Lip-Bu Tan hinting at additional contracts to be announced

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HSBC analysts identified growing demand for Xeon server processors, which power data center workloads including inference, as a key driver of Intel's comeback

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. A company spokesperson explained that the shift from AI model training to inference computing is causing a proportional increase in the number of CPUs needed to accompany each GPU

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Tesla Partnership Validates Foundry Business Ambitions

Intel's foundry business received a symbolic boost this week when Elon Musk confirmed Tesla would use Intel's next-generation 14A process node for chip manufacturing tied to his planned Terafab AI chip complex

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. Musk expressed confidence in the 14A manufacturing process during Tesla's earnings call, making the electric vehicle maker the first major customer for the advanced technology

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Source: FT

Source: FT

Ryuta Makino, an analyst at Intel investor Gabelli Funds, called the Tesla deal a "huge win" for Intel's bid to build a contract chip manufacturing business that can eventually rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

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. Intel Foundry Services generated $5.4 billion in revenue, up 16% and above the $4.6 billion analysts expected, though the division still relies almost exclusively on Intel's own product divisions for orders

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Lip-Bu Tan said Intel expects to see earlier design commitments for the 14A process node beginning in the second half of 2026 and expanding into the first half of 2027

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. When asked about the Terafab project, which aims to produce a terawatt's worth of computing power annually, Lip-Bu Tan said he and Elon Musk share the vision that the global supply chain isn't keeping pace with accelerating demand

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Supply Constraints and Manufacturing Execution Remain Critical

Despite the positive results, Intel faces execution challenges in meeting surging demand. Lip-Bu Tan acknowledged in an interview that the company is still unable to produce enough chips to fill all orders, though Intel is working to increase output from its factories . "There is huge demand. We are working very hard with our team to make sure we deliver, that we meet that demand but we are still short because the demand keeps increasing from the customers," he said .

Zinsner noted that part of the strong revenue forecast reflected higher chip prices, while warning that execution risks in chip manufacturing could limit how much demand Intel ultimately captures

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. The company reported gross margin of 41% on an adjusted basis for Q1, with a forecast of 39% for the current period—still well below the 60%-plus margins Intel regularly achieved at the height of its powers .

Valuation Surge Reflects Market Confidence in Turnaround

Intel shares have nearly tripled since the Trump administration announced a 10% stake acquisition for $8.9 billion in August, a stake now worth nearly $35 billion

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. The stock gained 81% this year before the earnings announcement and rose as high as 20% in after-hours trading, reaching a five-year-plus high

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At least 14 brokerages raised their price targets on Intel stock following the results

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. Intel last traded at around 90 times its 12-month forward earnings—its highest on record—significantly higher than AMD at 37.2 times and Nvidia at 22.1 times

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. Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer, said the results make "Intel's turnaround look less like a hope-fueled blip and more like a steadier longer-term trajectory"

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