Wall Street gives SpaceX bullish ratings, calling it 'apex of civilizational ambition'

5 Sources

Share

Major banks initiated coverage on SpaceX with overwhelmingly bullish analyst ratings following its blockbuster IPO. Morgan Stanley set a $300 price target, while Goldman Sachs targeted $205, highlighting the company's AI infrastructure ambitions. Analysts see SpaceX transforming from a rocket company into a planetary infrastructure platform combining launch dominance, Starlink connectivity, and orbital compute capabilities.

Major Banks Issue First SpaceX Stock Price Target Ratings

Wall Street coverage of SpaceX began in earnest as the industry-mandated quiet period ended for analysts at banks that underwrote the company's June 12 IPO

1

. The timing coincides with SpaceX joining the Nasdaq 100 just 15 days after its stock market debut, creating an estimated $4.3 billion in passive inflows according to JPMorgan

5

. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and JPMorgan led the blockbuster offering that raised $75 billion at $135 per share, making it the largest IPO on record

3

. SpaceX closed at $160.42 per share with a total market capitalization of $2.1 trillion, making it the sixth-largest U.S. company

1

.

Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

The bullish analyst ratings reflect a fundamental shift in how Wall Street views the company. Deutsche Bank analysts described SpaceX as "the apex of civilizational ambition, oftentimes expressed in steel and fire, bending the arc of history," while Bank of America called it the entity "paving the superhighway to the stars"

1

. Raymond James characterized the Starship rocket as "the defining industrial innovation of our generation" in setting a Strong Buy rating with an $800 price target

1

.

SpaceX AI Ambitions Drive Aggressive Price Targets

Morgan Stanley set the most aggressive SpaceX stock price target at $300, arguing the company's biggest opportunity lies beyond rockets in its vertically integrated AI infrastructure combining terrestrial and orbital compute

2

. The bank's base-case model projects revenue rising from approximately $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion in 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040, with the largest upside tied to Starship, Starlink capacity, terrestrial compute, and orbital compute

2

.

Goldman Sachs set a more conservative $205 price target, implying 27.8% upside, but expects SpaceX AI sales to skyrocket from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030—a roughly 100-fold jump

3

. The bank expects the company to reach $352 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030 and projects free cash flow turning positive by 2031

3

. Goldman sees SpaceX operating three distinct but interrelated business segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence, all leveraging the company's vertically integrated platform

1

.

Mizuho Securities initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and $200 price target, citing the company's dominant position in global launch operations and its vertically integrated platform spanning space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure segments

4

. The firm set a bull case price target of $255 and a bear case target of $122

4

.

Orbital Compute Infrastructure Emerges as Secret Weapon

Morgan Stanley's thesis centers on what analysts call SpaceX's "secret AI weapon"—orbital compute infrastructure that could transform the economics of AI deployment

2

. The bank highlights SpaceXAI's COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II clusters, which collectively provide around 1.0 GW of compute power, with COLOSSUS reportedly brought online in 122 days and COLOSSUS II in just 91 days

2

. Analysts model SpaceXAI adding 1.2 GW in 2026, 2.2 GW in 2027, and 3.7 GW in 2028, making time-to-power a direct driver of revenue growth

2

.

Morgan Stanley built a bottom-up model estimating three generations of AI satellites, with orbital compute deployments beginning in 2028 at 160 MW, reaching 2.7 GW in 2030, 21 GW in 2032, 111 GW in 2035, and 364 GW by 2040

2

. Crucially, analysts argue orbital compute could reach cost parity with current industry terrestrial compute by 2031, with orbital compute capex per watt falling from approximately $166/W in 2028 to $9/W by 2040

2

. The bank believes SpaceX can achieve industry-leading compute cost through vertical integration, targeting infrastructure capex of $4-$5 per watt versus industry averages closer to $9 per watt

2

.

Starship Rocket and Starlink Broadband Anchor Growth Thesis

The Starship rocket remains central to SpaceX's transformation into what Cantor Fitzgerald calls a "planetary infrastructure company" that doesn't compete within existing markets but defines the cost structure of new ones

1

. Deutsche Bank notes that while Falcon 9 launched to orbit 165 times last year, accounting for more than 90% of all upmass globally, Starship is designed to lift 100 tons to orbit—a roughly 5x improvement—at just hundreds of dollars per kilogram or even less

1

. Mizuho highlighted that reusability technology has already reduced launch costs approximately 85% to 90% below historical averages

4

.

Source: ET

Source: ET

Starlink broadband continues as the financial engine driving current results. Wells Fargo noted the Connectivity segment contributed 61% of total revenue and reported $7.2 billion in EBITDA in 2025, with a subscriber base that doubled year-over-year to 10.3 million users

1

. JPMorgan projects broadband subscribers growing from 9 million in 2025 to more than 95 million in 2030 across the largest LEO constellation with 9,600-plus satellites serving 164 markets

1

. A reported $30 billion Google compute deal including roughly 110,000 GPUs deepens the Starlink-plus-AI infrastructure story

3

.

Valuation Concerns and Execution Risk Temper Optimism

Despite overwhelmingly bullish Wall Street coverage, valuation metrics suggest investors are paying for years of future growth that hasn't materialized. SpaceX's enterprise value-to-sales ratio sits at 110.2 times trailing sales and 57.8 times forward sales, while the price-to-sales ratio stands at 26.4 times trailing and 57.4 times forward

3

. Morningstar analysts pegged the company's fair valuation at approximately $780 billion—roughly one-third of its current $2.1 trillion market capitalization—citing uncertainty around its AI business including xAI and social media platform X .

Execution risks loom large as SpaceX must demonstrate space-based AI computing by late 2027, with the first AI satellite expected to use Nvidia chips and computing power comparable to a GB300 rack

3

. The company needs to scale Starship, prove orbital data centers work economically, maintain Starlink growth, manage intensive capital requirements, and navigate regulatory challenges. Investors betting on SpaceX becoming a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider using cash generated to fund development of Grok as it competes with OpenAI's GPT models and Anthropic's Claude will be watching the first earnings report expected in late July or August closely

5

.

Today's Top Stories

© 2026 TheOutpost.AI All rights reserved