SpaceX AI infrastructure bets on Earth-based compute while orbital plans remain years away

SpaceX's near-term AI payoff seen tethered to Earth, not outer space

July 10 (Reuters) - Elon Musk may have pitched a future where space powers AI, but Wall Street analysts say SpaceX's near-term value remains firmly tethered to Earth, where it is building out the infrastructure underpinning the AI boom. Infrastructure providers, particularly data centers, are poised to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom as businesses and consumers rapidly adopt the technology for applications ranging from software coding and robotics to everyday tasks such as shopping and planning. SpaceX, a major AI player, has already started monetizing compute by striking deals with enterprise customers, including Anthropic, for its Colossus supercomputer clusters. In contrast, its orbital AI plan remains a longer-term opportunity that depends on the introduction of Starship rockets, lower launch costs and technological advances. Company filings analyzed by Reuters and commentary from research ⁠houses show that revenue from its latest compute contracts is set to far exceed sales from other segments this year. "The narrative that (orbital) will fundamentally disrupt terrestrial data centers is a little bit overblown. Any kind of displacement of terrestrial data centers is 10 years plus out," said Anthony Milovantsev, a partner at consultancy firm Altman Solon. J.P. Morgan expects SpaceX to expand terrestrial AI compute capacity to about 9 gigawatts by 2029 - roughly equivalent to four times the power generated by the Hoover Dam. "Beyond 2029, we expect SpaceX to pivot to orbital compute for incremental capacity additions, while continuing to operate and maintain its terrestrial compute clusters," the brokerage said. TERRESTRIAL COMPUTE BEGINS TO PAY OFF SpaceX's deals with Anthropic, Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Google and Reflection AI for its Colossus compute facilities are expected to generate more than $28 billion in annual revenue. That figure far exceeds SpaceX's 2025 AI revenue of about $3.2 billion and surpasses revenue from its launch and Starlink connectivity businesses individually, according to Reuters calculations. Analysts cautioned that the contracts contain termination ⁠provisions and should not be viewed as guaranteed long-term recurring revenue. SpaceX invested nearly $18 billion in AI infrastructure and development in 2025, including about $12.7 billion in AI-related capital expenditure and $5.1 billion in AI research and development, dwarfing spending on its space and connectivity businesses, according to company filings analyzed by Reuters. Colossus and Colossus II together provide roughly one gigawatt of AI compute capacity, placing SpaceX among the world's largest AI compute operators. Analysts expect that footprint to expand several-fold over the next few years. Several brokerages also cite SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of AI ⁠coding startup Cursor as evidence the company is expanding beyond infrastructure into enterprise software, allowing it to monetize both AI applications and the computing capacity behind them. ORBITAL AI REMAINS A LONG-TERM BET Most brokerages that initiated coverage of SpaceX following its IPO are treating orbital AI as a longer-term opportunity, while basing their near-term financial forecasts around terrestrial AI infrastructure. "We view the ⁠long-term viability of orbital data centers as unproven and highly dependent on key technological milestones that have yet to be fully realized," BofA analysts said in a note. Analysts broadly expect terrestrial compute to drive SpaceX's growth and earnings for the rest of the decade, with orbital AI dependent on Starship achieving rapid reusability, lower launch ⁠costs and advances in satellite engineering. Most say that Starship may eventually help deploy solar-powered computing satellites that could reduce costs associated with energy, cooling and land - some of the bugbears of terrestrial data centers. The debate, analysts say, is no longer about SpaceX's ability to build and monetize AI infrastructure. Rather, it is more about how quickly it turns that opportunity into a viable business beyond Earth's atmosphere. Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab * Suggested Topics: * Artificial Intelligence Akash Sriram Thomson Reuters Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.

Major banks give their first ratings on SpaceX and they're quite bullish: 'Apex of civilizational ambition'

The big banks on Wall Street began equity research coverage on SpaceX Tuesday, and their bullishness on the rocket company is reaching literary proportions. Analysts for Deutsche Bank said Tuesday that SpaceX represents "the apex of civilizational ambition, oftentimes expressed in steel and fire, bending the arc of history." Bank of America analysts said the owner of Starlink -- low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites for high-speed broadband internet -- is "paving the superhighway to the stars." Raymond James described SpaceX's new reusable rocket Starship, which is still in its testing phase, as "the defining industrial innovation of our generation." Many of the big banks were also underwriters of SpaceX's June 12 public offering, so their equity research divisions were restricted from releasing reports earlier so as not to boost the stock price artificially. The main bookrunners for the IPO were Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and JPMorgan, but more than a dozen others played smaller roles. While almost all of the research released Tuesday was positive, MoffettNathanson was virtually alone in seeing SpaceX losing value over the next 12 months. SpaceX closed at $160.42 per share on Monday, about where it ended on its first day of trading after the $135 IPO, with a total market capitalization of $2.1 trillion. SPCX 5D mountain SPCX past five days Raymond James Rating: "Strong Buy 1" Price target: $800 "The premise of our thesis is that Starship successfully industrializes orbital transportation, transforming orbital launch from a bespoke aerospace capability into a transportation network defined by commercial aviation-like operating cadence and continuously declining unit costs." Deutsche Bank Rating: "Buy" Price target: $255 "Having the capability to launch rockets reliably at high cadence and low cost is core to unlocking the broader space economy. SpaceX has accomplished part of this with Falcon 9, launching to orbit 165 times last year and accounting for > 90% of all upmass globally. Looking forward, Starship is designed to lift 100 tons to orbit (~5x improvement) at just hundreds of $/kg or even less." Goldman Sachs Rating: "Buy" Price target: $205 "The company is built around the principles of vertical integration, network effects and economies of scale -- leveraging its leading position and structural advantages around space launch capabilities into scaling adjacent/complementary businesses. Today, the company operates three distinct (but interrelated) business segments: (1) Space; (2) Connectivity; & (3) Artificial Intelligence ("AI"). In addition to driving cross-segment integration, SpaceX also maintains a vertical integration strategy within each of its business segments." JPMorgan Rating: "Overweight" Price target: $225 "Launch is the key enabler & differentiator, with ~670 orbital launches, a 99%+ success rate, & 80%+ of all mass to orbit since 2023. Starship should deliver a 10x cost improvement & ~4x higher payload vs. Falcon 9 and enable the company to pursue entirely new markets. Connectivity drives current financials via Starlink, the largest LEO constellation (9,600+ satellites, 12M+ active customers, 164 markets), where we project broadband subscribers growing from 9M in 2025 to 95M+ in 2030. Importantly, AI is expected to be the long-term driver, as SpaceX is modeled to ramp terrestrial compute ~8x to 8GW by the end of 2028 & pursue orbital compute towards ~75GW by the end of 2031." Cantor Fitzgerald Rating: "Overweight" Price target: $246 "We think investor debate has been anchored to near-term valuation multiples, which misses the central point: a planetary infrastructure company does not compete within existing markets -- it defines the cost structure of new ones. Near term, hosted compute at Colossus, Starlink broadband and launch services provide a durable and increasingly profitable earnings base that we believe de-risks the entry point." Stifel Financial Rating: "Buy" Price target: $190 "AI is the swing variable -- compute infrastructure the floor, owned intelligence the upside. The AI infrastructure TAM is the single largest at $2,400B, where SpaceX holds under 2% today. SpaceX is already demonstrating momentum in terrestrial data centers -- scaling toward ~1.4 GW of capacity anchored by Anthropic/Google leasing deals. The more significant prize is migrating AI's buildout into orbit, where SpaceX's stated goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of compute to space each year." Wells Fargo Rating: "Overweight" Price target: $230 "The Connectivity segment (Starlink) remains the primary engine of value, contributing 61% of total revenue and reporting $7.2B in EBITDA in 2025. With a subscriber base that doubled Y/Y to 10.3M users, Starlink has established a formidable moat in both consumer and enterprise markets with a first-mover advantage. We see this segment entering the next technology phase, unlocked by the pending commercialization of Starship, upgrading to the Starlink V3 satellites. This upgrade is expected to increase downlink capacity per launch by 20x relative to Falcon 9." MoffettNathanson Rating: "Neutral" Price target: $131 "SpaceX's assessment of its total addressable market (TAM), at almost $30 trillion, is absurd. So too are its forecasts for a mobility (device-to-device wireless) segment that is, to us, likely little more than a niche market. Founder and CEO Elon Musk has called for launching compute into orbit at a rate of 100 GW annually by year-end 2029, an amount that exceeds global in-service data center capacity today and for which sufficient material inputs will not exist in three-and-a-half years. There is simply no credible financial model that can support what is at the time of this writing a roughly $2 trillion valuation. Our own certainly does not."

Forget rockets: Morgan Stanley sets $300 SpaceX target based on a secret AI weapon

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on SpaceX with an Overweight rating and a $300 target price, arguing its biggest opportunity lies beyond rockets. The brokerage believes SpaceX's vertically integrated AI infrastructure, combining terrestrial and orbital compute, could transform it into one of the world's most powerful AI infrastructure platforms. Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of Elon Musk's newly listed SpaceX with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, arguing that the company's secret AI weapon, a vertically integrated terrestrial‑plus‑orbital compute stack, could make it one of the most powerful infrastructure platforms of the AI era. In a note, the brokerage firm says SpaceX now combines "near‑monopoly launch economics, the world's largest LEO satellite network, and a fast‑scaling AI infrastructure business" into a single, integrated stack of real estate in orbit, global connectivity and compute capacity. The bank's base‑case model projects SpaceX revenue rising from about $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion in 2030 and an eye‑catching $3.3 trillion by 2040, with the largest upside tied to Starship, Starlink capacity, terrestrial compute and orbital compute. US MarketsPowered By As on 07 Jul 2026, 01:30 AM IST S&P 500 Top Gainers Arista Networks173.28(8.31%) Western Digital577.46(7.14%) Tesla419.77(6.69%) Advanced Micro Devices552.05(6.61%) Gainers" S&P 500 Top Losers Solstice Advanced Mat68.05(-15.14%) Coterra Energy32.56(-8.62%) O'Reilly Automotive84.24(-6.66%) AutoZone2,958(-6.38%) Losers" Four KPIs will drive the stock over the next several years, the analysts argue: revenue per watt, cost per watt, cost per kilogram to orbit and Starlink subscribers or connected "nodes." These metrics map directly to the four big debates in their coverage -- whether Starship can deliver a step‑change in launch economics, whether Starlink can achieve broad adoption, whether SpaceXAI can lead on compute cost and time‑to‑power, and how far the company can push enterprise AI monetisation. Also Read | SpaceX set to join Nasdaq-100 today. Will index entry fuel its next rally? The secret AI weapon: SpaceXAI and orbital computeMorgan Stanley's thesis hinges less on rockets and more on what those rockets enable: a hybrid AI infrastructure that starts on Earth and then moves "off Earth." The report highlights SpaceXAI's COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II clusters, which collectively provide around 1.0 GW of compute power and related data‑centre capacity, with the first COLOSSUS cluster reportedly brought online in 122 days and COLOSSUS II in just 91 days. The analysts model SpaceXAI adding 1.2 GW of compute capacity in 2026, 2.2 GW in 2027 and 3.7 GW in 2028, making "time‑to‑power" a direct driver of revenue growth and share gains. On costs, they believe SpaceX can achieve "industry‑leading compute cost and time‑to‑power, first through terrestrial compute and vertical integration, and longer term through orbital compute as a meaningful driver of lower cost per watt." A large portion of capex is directed towards Terafab, Solarfab and other vertical integration efforts, including blade/vane foundry and terrestrial communications infrastructure, to push infrastructure capex to roughly $4-$5 per watt (excluding chips), versus industry averages closer to $9 per watt. The "secret weapon" is orbital compute. Morgan Stanley has built a bottom‑up model across launch, satellite hardware and compute payloads and estimates three generations of AI satellites, progressing from roughly 150 kW of total power and 2.1 tonnes of mass to about 913 kW of power and 6.1 tonnes per satellite. They model orbital compute deployments beginning in 2028 at 160 MW, reaching 2.7 GW in 2030, 21 GW in 2032, 111 GW in 2035 and 364 GW by 2040, with orbital becoming the majority of total compute capacity by 2032. Crucially, Morgan Stanley argues that orbital compute could reach cost parity with current industry terrestrial compute by 2031 on an all‑in annualised basis. Their model implies orbital compute capex per watt falling from about $166/W in 2028 and $60/W in 2030 to $32/W in 2031, $15/W in 2035 and $9/W by 2040, driven by lower launch costs, cheaper satellite hardware and improved payload economics. Using a five‑year useful life, that translates to roughly $6.5 per watt per year -- slightly below their internet team's estimate of about $6.8 per watt per year for Blackwell‑class terrestrial data centres. "In our opinion, scalability/time‑to‑power is the bigger constraint vs. pure cost," the analysts write, noting that recent neocloud deals have supported premium pricing due to the scarcity of large, high‑end GPU clusters that can be accessed quickly. They argue that even if orbital compute is not immediately at cost parity, SpaceX may still be able to charge a "material premium" if it becomes "the most scalable AI infrastructure player available," drawing a parallel with the company's launch business, where prices have risen despite steadily falling internal costs. Also Read | Not just Elon Musk, retail investors are losing money in Tesla and SpaceX crash. What should you do? From rockets to revenue: Starship and Starlink as AI enablersWhile the note's headline is all about AI, Morgan Stanley is explicit that Starship remains the "main unlock" for SpaceX's long‑term economics across space, connectivity and AI. The team assumes Starship becomes operational in the fourth quarter of 2026 and models launch costs per kilogram falling to roughly $500 by 2030, under $200/kg by 2035 and below $150/kg by 2040, versus historical averages of about $18,500/kg pre‑Falcon 9. Starship's reusability profile is central to that curve. So far, SpaceX has caught the Super Heavy booster three times and reused it twice, and the next milestone is physical recovery of the Starship upper stage, or "Ship," which has already performed controlled ocean landings. Morgan Stanley expects Ship recovery "sometime before year‑end, potentially as soon as Flight 14," but cautions investors to focus "less on the literal landing itself and more on the actual turnaround time required for Ship reuse," as cadence will be the key indicator of cost progress. By 2040, the analysts model roughly 6,000 Starship launches per year, implying about 16.5 launches per day across five pad complexes and 10 towers, with each Ship reused around 40 times and each booster about 130 times, supported by a fleet of roughly 170 Ships and 56 boosters. They stress that 75% to more than 90% of Starship launches are likely to be used internally between 2027 and 2040, meaning launch economics flow directly into Starlink V3 deployment, Mobile Gen 2 satellites, orbital compute and other infrastructure programmes. On the connectivity side, Morgan Stanley frames Starlink as the "connectivity layer for every data‑transmitting device that needs reliable coverage beyond terrestrial networks." With Starship‑enabled V3 broadband and Mobile Gen 2 satellites, they estimate saleable capacity rising about 2.5x in 2027 on just 35 Starship launches, nearly 19x by 2030 and roughly 600x by 2040, with V3 satellites offering more than 10x the downlink capacity per satellite and over 20x the capacity per launch versus current V2 Mini on Falcon 9. Connectivity revenue is modelled to climb from $11.4 billion in 2025 to $120.6 billion in 2030 and $687.7 billion in 2040, driven by international consumer broadband, Starshield, enterprise, mobile and a wave of Starlink‑connected robots and other embodied AI devices. Morgan Stanley estimates a global robot base of about 2.2 billion by 2040, with Starlink penetration rates of 40% for autonomous vehicles, 33% for drones and eVTOLs and 20% for other robots, contributing roughly 34% of 2040 Connectivity revenue. To reach broad adoption, the bank's model assumes global household broadband penetration peaking near 11.5% in 2040 and mobile penetration at around 6%, while consumer and enterprise ARPU declines from roughly $92 per month in 2025 to $47 in 2030 and $36 in 2040 as international markets grow in the mix. Enterprise AI: neocloud today, agents tomorrowMorgan Stanley calls Enterprise AI "the largest opportunity" in its SpaceX model and breaks it into three layers: renting compute through neocloud agreements, selling managed AI infrastructure and tools, and delivering end‑to‑end enterprise applications. They forecast AI revenue rising from about $22 billion in 2026 to $190 billion in 2030 and $2.6 trillion in 2040, with enterprise use‑cases accounting for the majority of the segment over time. Near term, neocloud dominates. SpaceX's S‑1 filing disclosed a major Anthropic deal, and the company has signed an agreement with Google and reportedly entered talks with Reflection, which Morgan Stanley collectively estimates at roughly $28 billion of annualised revenue through 2029. "We expect neocloud to drive most revenue given tight compute supply," the analysts write, adding that the company "expects to enter into additional services contracts" in reference to the Anthropic deal. Longer term, the mix is expected to shift towards higher‑value software and workflow automation. Products such as Cursor, Grok Enterprise, Macrohard and agentic AI tools could push SpaceX deeper into coding, digital agents, robotics, autonomous operations and other AI‑enabled workflows. The key debate, Morgan Stanley says, is whether SpaceX can "combine compute, models, data, and distribution to capture more value per watt than neocloud peers." Their base case assumes 6.1 GW of average compute capacity in 2028 and about $101 billion of AI revenue, equal to roughly $16.6 per watt -- down 9% from a 2027 estimate of around $18 per watt as supply normalises. They outline multiple paths to $100 billion of AI revenue in 2028, ranging from 4 GW at $25 per watt if supply remains tight to 8 GW at $12.5 per watt if broader industry capacity improves. Over time, they expect revenue per watt to "decline meaningfully" as the market moves towards equilibrium, but argue that software and services could help support higher value extraction than pure compute rental. Valuation and risksMorgan Stanley's $300 price target is built on a 15‑year divisional DCF sum‑of‑the‑parts, with an 11.1% WACC and a 50% discount applied to the AI business, and triangulated against "high growth mega‑cap tech comparables." At $300 per share, SpaceX would trade at about 25x 2028 sales, 56x 2028 EBIT and 36x 2028 EBITDA, while a growth‑adjusted EV/EBIT framework screens below the 25th percentile of a comp set of large AI enablers. The bull case of $600 per share assumes faster execution across Starship, orbital compute and Terafab with AI representing more than 60% of valuation, while the bear case of $75 per share assumes Starship slips to 2029 and AI monetisation and deployment speed disappoint, leaving Space and Connectivity at roughly 90% of valuation. "Space is hard and future Starship and in‑space anomalies should be expected," the analysts caution, flagging technology readiness, launch anomalies, regulatory and geopolitical exposure and governance risks linked to Elon Musk's central roles and expected voting control after the IPO. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Elon Musk Says SpaceX Would Be Worth More Than Earth if It Achieves Its Goals Amid First AI Satellite Rev

SpaceX to Exceed Earth's Value? "I wonder if History will look back at this $7.5-40B Anthropic/SpaceXai deal as the biggest unforced error of the AI era," the user said, while also outlining that the deal could hinder Anthropic's IPO as users could transfer most token exchange to SpaceX and "Claude is only used for the top tasks." Musk responded to the user, sharing his own take on the matter. "You don't seem to understand that SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals," he said in the post. SpaceX Touts New AI Satellite On Thursday, SpaceX also revealed renderings of the company's AI1 satellite, part of its Starmind constellation, which is a constellation of satellites dedicated to AI compute. The satellites will support chips from all providers and possess a 150 kW peak compute payload, as well as an average payload compute of 120 kW. The satellites will have a wingspan of 70 meters and have a 150 kW solar array. Notably, Musk has been a staunch supporter of orbital AI compute, most recently saying it was the only way to overcome Earth-based bottlenecks to AI compute. "Space is the only way to scale at scale," the trillionaire had said. Benzinga Edge Rankings show SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term. Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 0.06% at $152.25 during the after-hours session on Thursday. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.

Elon Musk's startling claim to SpaceX investors

Someone on X (the former Twitter) was criticizing the deal Anthropic struck with SpaceX to use its Colossus data centers. The argument was that handing $45 billion to SpaceX through May 2029 could be a massive unforced error, potentially letting xAI drain Anthropic's token traffic and leaving Claude as a niche product for premium tasks. Elon Musk read that and replied with one of the more extraordinary claims you'll see from a CEO. "You don't seem to understand that SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals," he wrote. What Musk actually meant by "worth more than the rest of Earth" The global economy produces about $110 trillion in output annually. SpaceX is currently valued at around $400 billion. The math between those two numbers is staggering, and Musk knows it. That's exactly why he said it the way he did. His argument isn't that SpaceX will be worth $110 trillion next year or even next decade. It's that a company controlling the infrastructure of a space-based economy, one that can harness the energy and manufacturing potential beyond Earth's atmosphere, could eventually operate at a scale that makes terrestrial GDP look small by comparison. He's made versions of this argument before. "Space is the only way to scale at scale," he wrote on X, pointing to Earth-based bottlenecks in AI compute as the reason he's been pushing satellite-based processing so aggressively. The July 9 post was the same thesis, just stated more bluntly than usual. SpaceX Starmind AI satellite revealed the same day Musk made his claim The timing of Musk's post wasn't random. The same day he made that claim, SpaceX published the first public renderings of its AI1 satellite, part of a new constellation called Starmind, dedicated entirely to AI compute in orbit. The specs are worth looking at. Each satellite carries a 150 kW peak compute payload and runs off a 150 kW solar array, with a wingspan of 70 meters. The constellation connects through laser links and beams AI compute back down to Earth through Starlink. To deal with the heat that comes with that much processing power, the satellites use deployable liquid radiators that push heat out into the vacuum of space instead of trying to manage it with water or air, as ground-based data centers do. This is the infrastructure Musk is betting on. If orbital AI compute scales the way he thinks it can, SpaceX doesn't just benefit from launching satellites. It becomes the backbone of a computing layer that has no physical limits tied to land, power grids, or cooling water. The Anthropic deal that triggered Musk's response The comment that set off Musk's reply was about the xAI-Anthropic deal. Anthropic is paying SpaceX $45 billion through May 2029 to use its Colossus and Colossus II data centers, according to Benzinga. The deal gives Anthropic access to the compute it needs to train and run its models, but the X user pointed out the risk: Anthropic's money is directly funding SpaceX's infrastructure buildout, potentially the same infrastructure that will eventually compete with Claude through xAI. Musk didn't address that concern directly. He answered with the bigger frame. Whether the Anthropic deal is good for Anthropic is a different question. In Musk's telling, it accelerates SpaceX toward a future where the company is so central to the global compute and communications stack that its valuation has no earthly ceiling. Why investors pay attention when Musk says things like this A lot of people will read "worth more than Earth" and dismiss it immediately. That's understandable. A company currently valued at $400 billion surpassing the economic output of the entire planet isn't a forecast anyone can model. But Musk has a track record of saying things that sound impossible and then building companies that at least partially prove them out. SpaceX was going to fail. Tesla was going to fail. Starlink was widely dismissed as uneconomic before it became a real business with millions of subscribers. None of those validated the most extreme claims, but they moved the goalposts. What Musk is doing with the SpaceX statement is less a valuation call and more a signal about how he wants investors and potential partners to think about the company's ceiling. SpaceX isn't a rocket company trying to win government contracts. In his framing, it's the foundational infrastructure of a civilization that will eventually operate beyond one planet. If you accept that premise, no price target based on Earth's economy is relevant. What Musk's SpaceX claim means for investors watching the AI space race For investors, the July 9 posts, both the Starmind satellite reveal and the X reply, tell you something specific about where Musk thinks the next phase of the AI infrastructure buildout is going. He's not just talking about data centers in Nevada or Texas. He's talking about compute in orbit, funded by deals like the one Anthropic just signed, built on hardware that puts AI processing above the atmosphere where cooling, power, and physical space aren't constraints. Starlink already operates around 6,000 satellites in low Earth orbit. Adding a dedicated AI compute layer on top of that network is a real technical project, not a slide deck. Whether it achieves anything close to the scale Musk described on July 9 depends on launches, costs, and adoption curves that nobody can accurately model today. But when Musk says SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth, he isn't predicting a stock price. He's telling you the frame he's building toward and asking you to decide whether you think he's delusional or early. Based on the last 20 years, that's a harder question than it looks. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 9:33 AM.

Goldman Sachs sets new SpaceX stock price target for 2026

SpaceX (SPCX) didn't enter the market quietly. Its blockbuster debut has instantly made it one of the most-watched companies on Wall Street, with investors chasing a rare public-market play on rockets, satellites, Starlink, and Elon Musk's next frontier. The first major analyst calls are landing after the 25-day IPO quiet period, and Goldman Sachs' hot take stands out. The bank leans on far bigger ideas than just launch revenue, seeing SpaceX's AI revenue explode over the next several years, turning AI into a potential centerpiece of the company's long-term valuation story. So, as Wall Street came for the space race, Goldman Sachs is pointing investors toward the relentless AI race. Latest SpaceX developments investors are watching * SpaceX's IPO became the headline event:Reuters said SpaceX raised $75 billion in its June IPO, selling shares at $135, making it the largest IPO on record. The listing also pushed Elon Musk's net worth above $1.1 trillion. * Nasdaq-100 entry came fast:Reuters reported SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 just 15 days after debut, with JPMorgan estimating about $4.3 billion in passive inflows. * Wall Street is already split: Goldman set its SpaceX target at $205, while Morgan Stanley went much higher at $300, creating a valuation gap of more than $1 trillion between the lead underwriters, according to Morningstar. * The AI angle got louder:TheStreet reported a $30 billion Google compute deal, including roughly 110,000 GPUs, deepening the Starlink-plus-AI infrastructure story. Sources: Reuters, MarketWatch, TheStreet. Goldman says SpaceX is not just a rocket stock anymore Goldman Sachs' SpaceX note makes it clear that the company's valuation story is no longer just limited to launches, Starlink subscribers, or Elon Musk's space ambitions. In fact, Goldman sees SpaceX as a future AI infrastructure giant, with space-based computing becoming a critical part of its bull case. The bank reportedly set a $205 price target on SpaceX. Based on the latest quoted price of $160.42, that implies over 27.8% upside from current levels. Though that raises eyebrows for sure, the target is still considerably below Morgan Stanley's reported $300 target. Though Goldman's target may appear to be a lot more restrained, according to MarketWatch, Goldman expects SpaceX to double sales this year and reach $352 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030. On top of that, the bank expects free cash flow to turn positive by 2031, years before Morgan Stanley's reported 2035 timeline. According to Reuters, citing the Financial Times, Goldman expects SpaceX's AI sales to skyrocket from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, a roughly 100-fold jump. Additionally, it projects that total revenue rose from $18.7 billion to $474 billion over the same period. Those lofty numbers are attributed to SpaceX's tremendous platform that layers in launch capacity, satellite manufacturing, Starlink distribution, xAI and orbital data centers. At the same time, though, that's also where the risk sits. SpaceX still needs to scale up Starship, prove space-based AI compute, keep Starlink growing, manage intensive capital needs and avoid regulatory setbacks. Goldman is bullish, but clearly the burden of proof is enormous: SpaceX has to become much more than the company investors thought they were buying at the IPO. What SpaceX investors are watching next For SpaceX investors, it's just the start of the next test. The first earnings report may matter even more, which is expected to drop in late July or August. It offered investors the first real look at SpaceX's growth, margins, AI spending, and cash burn after the IPO. Moreover, it could also trigger the first big lockup-related share release, depending on the company's stock performance and other conditions. Then comes execution. Reuters reports that SpaceX is looking to demonstrate space-based AI computing by late 2027, with the first AI satellite expected to use Nvidia chips and computing power comparable to a GB300 rack. Moreover, Starship remains critical to that story because lower launch costs are needed to make Starlink expansion and orbital AI compute work at scale. Hence, even though SpaceX has enormous upside, the stock now needs proof that its AI future is more than just a valuation story. For perspective, SpaceX's valuation looks remarkably extreme across virtually every metric, according to Seeking Alpha. If we look at the EV/sales metric, which compares total enterprise value to revenue, it sits at 110.2 times trailing sales and 57.8 times forward sales, meaning investors are paying incredibly high multiples for each dollar of sales the company dishes out. Moreover, the price/sales ratio, which looks only at equity value relative to revenue, is at 26.4 times trailing sales and 57.4 times forward sales, suggesting the stock price is baking in years of growth. That means investors are currently paying for a multi-year story around Starlink, launch dominance, Starship economics, and orbital AI. At this valuation, SpaceX needs almost flawless execution, massive margin expansion and no major capital-market hiccup. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published July 7, 2026 at 12:47 PM.

Mizuho initiates SpaceX stock coverage with Outperform rating By Investing.com

Investing.com - Mizuho initiated coverage on Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $200.00 on Tuesday. The stock currently trades at $160.42, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.11 trillion, though InvestingPro data suggests the shares may be overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate. The firm cited the company's dominant position in global launch operations and its vertically integrated platform spanning space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence segments. Mizuho noted SpaceX's reusability technology has reduced launch costs approximately 85% to 90% below historical averages. The Outperform rating is based on the company's launch dominance and path to full reusability, with Starship expected to drive further cost and capacity improvements. Mizuho also highlighted Starlink as a financial engine, with V3 capacity expansion enabling access to denser urban markets. The firm identified the AI segment as offering high optionality, supported by Colossus compute infrastructure and vertical integration. Mizuho said the company's cost and cadence advantages have created a competitive moat that rivals have been unable to match. Mizuho set a bull case price target of $255 and a bear case target of $122 for the shares. The company generated $19.3 billion in revenue over the last twelve months with a gross profit margin of 49%, and analysts project revenue growth of 95% this year. According to InvestingPro Tips, while the company is a prominent player in the Diversified Telecommunication Services industry, analysts do not anticipate profitability this year. Subscribers have access to 12 additional ProTips for deeper investment insights. In other recent news, SpaceX has seen a flurry of analyst activity with several firms initiating coverage on the company. Needham has given SpaceX a buy rating, citing its leadership in orbital infrastructure and the significant growth of its Starlink service, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue with 10.3 million subscribers across 160 countries. Citi also initiated coverage with a buy rating, setting a price target of $200. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo rated SpaceX as overweight, with a price target of $230, and highlighted the company's ambitious launch plans to support its Starlink and orbital compute deployments. Morgan Stanley provided an overweight rating and a $300 price target, focusing on SpaceX's potential in monetizing enterprise AI, particularly noting Cursor's $4 billion in annual recurring revenue. William Blair offered an outperform rating, emphasizing SpaceX's expansion into artificial intelligence infrastructure and telecommunications, and mentioned a $60 billion deal to acquire Cursor. These developments underscore the company's strategic moves and growth potential in the space and satellite communications sectors. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Wall Street warms to SpaceX ahead of Nasdaq 100 inclusion

(Corrects paragraph 12 to say Oppenheimer initiated coverage on SpaceX in June and not in July) July 7 (Reuters) - SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday is expected to unleash billions in passive buying, as brokerages kick off coverage of the $2 trillion-plus rocket and satellite company with broadly bullish views. The company joins the index just 15 days after its stock market debut on June 12 - among the fastest inclusions ever - thanks to the Nasdaq's revised rules for newly listed companies looking to enter widely tracked benchmarks. Its debut in the tech-heavy index is set to create another source of demand for its shares as index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the Nasdaq 100 will need to buy shares to match the benchmark's new composition. Active managers who track the index closely may also adjust their positions. Many retail investors prefer investing in funds to diversify their holdings. Over $587 billion is benchmarked in funds tracking the Nasdaq 100, including Invesco's QQQ and QQQM, which will now have to make room for SpaceX. J.P. Morgan estimated last month that SpaceX's addition to the index could draw $4.3 billion in passive inflows. QUIET PERIOD ENDS Investors are awaiting a wave of reports from Wall Street brokerages making their first attempt to value SpaceX as a publicly traded company, applying traditional valuation metrics to a business that's largely been assessed by investors' belief in Musk's long-term bets. The industry-mandated quiet period ends for analysts at banks that underwrote the blockbuster IPO - led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs started coverage on the stock on Tuesday with their top ratings, with Morgan Stanley dubbing the company "AI's final frontier." "We see the company as well-positioned to scale its differentiated advantages across space, connectivity, and AI," Goldman analysts said, betting each market has the potential to become a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity over a five-year-plus horizon. Brokerages RBC, Bernstein, and Stifel also initiated coverage with their top ratings, betting on the success of Starship, SpaceX's next-generation rocket that is designed to be fully reusable. "The Starship is the flywheel that powers SpaceX's ambitions," RBC analysts said. Last month, Oppenheimer became the first to initiate coverage with an "outperform" rating. INVESTORS BET ON AI CAPABILITIES Investors are betting SpaceX can evolve into a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider in the near term, using cash generated to fund the development of Grok as it takes on OpenAI's GPT models and Anthropic's Claude. They also see significant room for Starlink to expand its dominance in satellite communications, while much of the company's longer-term ambitions depend on the successful development of its next-generation Starship rocket. However, not everyone is bullish on SpaceX. Morningstar analysts pegged the company's valuation at about $780 billion, citing uncertainty around its AI business, including xAI and social media platform X. With a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion, SpaceX is the sixth-largest U.S. company, and CEO Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. FTSE Russell added the stock to its U.S. indexes last month, with funds such as iShares Russell 1000 ETF already giving investors a piece of the biggest IPO in U.S. history. However, S&P Global declined to create a similar fast-track process for the benchmark S&P 500 in June, and it is expected to take at least a year before SpaceX joins the world's most widely tracked index. SpaceX shares have gained more than 6% since their debut in their short ride marked by post-IPO volatility. (Reporting by Purvi Agarwal, Rashika Singh and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty) By Purvi Agarwal and Rashika Singh